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Consequences of price volatility in evaluating the benefits of liberalisation

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  • Boussard, Jean-Marc

Abstract

Many computable general equilibrium models have been set up recently, in order to assess the benefits of trade liberalisation, especially in agriculture. Although figures magnitudes differ from one model to another, they cannot reach any other conclusion than positive benefits. On the other hand, historical experience shows that liberalisation, far from being a new idea, has been tried at several occasions during the two last centuries, repeatedly ending in crisis, and hasty return to various forms of protection. A possible explanation could be in the comparative static approach of most liberalisation proponents, and their neglect of dynamic aspects. Especially, because risk is necessarily tied with unfulfilled expectations, it should play a decisive role in modelling. A new model is developed along this line, showing the possibility of a chaotic price regime, which would prevent full liberalisation to be feasible.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4467.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4467

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Keywords: globalisation; risk ; volatility ; modelling ; trade ; agriculture ; Doha ; WTO;

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  1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  2. Jean-Christophe Bureau & Antoine Bouet, Yvan Decreux, Sébastien Jean, 2005. "Multilateral agricultural trade liberalization: The contrasting fortunes of developing countries in the Doha Round," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series, IIIS iiisdp060, IIIS.
  3. Will Martin & Kym Anderson, 2006. "Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6889, August.
  4. Boussard, Jean-Marc & Gerard, Francoise & Piketty, Marie Gabrielle & Ayouz, Mourad & Voituriez, Tancrede, 2006. "Endogenous risk and long run effects of liberalization in a global analysis framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 457-475, May.
  5. Boussard, J.M. & Gerard, F. & Piketty, M.G. & Christensen, A.K. & Voituriez, T., 2004. "May the pro-poor impacts of trade liberalisation vanish because of imperfect information?," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 297-305, December.
  6. Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira & Horridge, Mark, 2005. "The Doha Round, poverty, and regional inequality in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3701, The World Bank.
  7. Boussard, Jean-Marc, 1996. "When risk generates chaos," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 433-446, May.
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