Dynamic Correlations of Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads in the Euro zone and the Role of Credit Rating Agencies' Downgrades
AbstractThe European debt crisis that followed the global financial crisis, erupting first with Greece, then Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain, has threatened the very existence of the Euro zone. In this paper we examine the evolution of dynamic co-movements of sovereign bond yield spreads (BYS) in the Euro zone and the role of credit rating agency downgrades on those co-movements. Estimation results from a multivariate DCC-GARCH model on daily BYS data for nine Euro zone countries over the period 2007-2012 suggest an inverted U-shaped curve of BYS co-movements during the period of the financial and debt crisis. Credit rating downgrades by major rating agencies indicate rather idiosyncratic patterns of government bond yield spreads co-movements within and between the Euro zone periphery and the core.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43013.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Government bond yield spreads; credit rating agencies; dynamic conditional correlations; Euro zone sovereign debt crisis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-12-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-12-10 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2012-12-10 (European Economics)
- NEP-FMK-2012-12-10 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & Boscia, Marian W., 2010. "Comovements in government bond markets: A minimum spanning tree analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4875-4886.
- Pozzi, Lorenzo & Wolswijk, Guido, 2012. "The time-varying integration of euro area government bond markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 36-53.
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012.
"Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
- Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2011. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data," Working Paper Series 1347, European Central Bank.
- António Afonso & Davide Furceri & Pedro Gomes, 2011. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: application to European data," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/14, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2013. "Rating agencies’ signals during the European sovereign debt crisis: Market impact and spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 144-162.
- Hill, Paula & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2010. "Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1327-1343, June.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001.
"Emerging markets instability: do sovereign ratings affect country risk and stock returns?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2678, The World Bank.
- Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
- Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
- Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2013. "A dynamic factor model with time-varying loadings for euro area bond markets during the debt crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 50-54.
- Paula Hill & Robert Faff, 2010. "The Market Impact of Relative Agency Activity in the Sovereign Ratings Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9-10), pages 1309-1347, November/.
- Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
- Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
- Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
- Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Francesco Saraceno, 2014.
"Assessing the link between price and financial stability,"
Documents de Travail de l'OFCE
2014-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Christophe Blot & Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance & Francesco Saraceno, 2013. "Assessing the Link between Price and Financial Stability," Working papers wpaper33, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
- Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Fabien Labondance & Francesco Saraceno & Paul Hubert, 2014. "Assessing the link between Price and Financial Stability," Sciences Po publications 2014-02, Sciences Po.
- repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f6h8764enu2lskk9p4oqi4ibn is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.