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Crimonometric Analysis: Testing the Deterrence Hypothesis in Sabah

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  • Lau, Evan
  • Hamzah, Siti Nur Zahara
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Abstract

This paper empirically estimates disaggregated crime categories for Sabah from 1968 to 2006. The criminometric analysis incorporated in a within sample analysis of cointegration and error correction framework and the beyond sample analysis using the decompositions of variance. Our findings suggest that any support for the deterrence hypothesis is sensitive to the inclusion of prison or courts related variables. In the long run we find that only robbery is exogenous in all crime model tested however, the beyond sample estimation proves that in longer time period of approximately 50 years the post-sample dynamic VDCs imply that a substantial portion of the variance of the forecast error of these crime are explained by their explanatory variables.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 39297.

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Date of creation: 26 May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39297

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Keywords: econometric; crime; Sabah; cointegration; VECM; VDC;

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  1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  3. Moss, Geoffrey, 1997. "Explaining the absence of violent crime among the Semai of Malaysia: Is criminological theory up to the task?," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 177-194.
  4. Kelaher, Richard & Sarafidis, Vasilis, 2011. "Crime and Punishment Revisited," MPRA Paper 28213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Withers, Glenn, 1984. "Crime, Punishment and Deterrence in Australia: An Empirical Investigation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 60(169), pages 176-85, June.
  6. David B. Mustard, 2003. "Reexamining Criminal Behavior: The Importance of Omitted Variable Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 205-211, February.
  7. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
  8. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  9. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 107-164.
  10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  11. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 452-58, June.
  12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  13. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  14. Chor Foon Tang, 2011. "An exploration of dynamic relationship between tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 50-69, December.
  15. Muzafar Shah Habibullah & A.H. Baharom, 2009. "Crime and economic conditions in Malaysia," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(11), pages 1071-1081, October.
  16. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-65, May-June.
  17. Baharom, A.H. & Habibullah, M.S., 2008. "Crime and Income Inequality: The Case of Malaysia," MPRA Paper 11871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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