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Crime and Punishment Revisited

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  • Kelaher, Richard
  • Sarafidis, Vasilis

Abstract

Despite an abundance of empirical evidence on crime spanning over forty years, there exists no consensus on the impact of the criminal justice system on crime activity. We argue that this may be due to the combined effect of simultaneity, omitted variable bias and aggregation bias that may confound many of these studies. We construct a new panel data set of local government areas in Australia and develop a testing framework for the implications of economic theory on crime behaviour. The empirical results suggest that the criminal justice system can potentially exert a much greater influence on crime activity than is the common view in the literature. In addition, we find that increasing the risk of apprehension and conviction is more influential in reducing crime than raising the expected severity of punishment. Violent crime is more persistent and relatively less responsive to law enforcement policies compared to non-violent crime.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28213.

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Date of creation: 11 Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28213

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Related research

Keywords: Crime; deterrence; simultaneity; omitted variable bias; aggregation bias; panel data; GMM.;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Vea Papadopoulou, 2012. "Crime, Fertility, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 163, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  2. Rosalia Condorelli, 2013. "Applied nonlinear dynamical system in social science. A nonlinear model for social control system: an application to Italian coercion system," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 1173-1198, February.
  3. Cerro, Ana MarĂ­a & Ortega, Ana Carolina, 2012. "Sources of Regional Crime Persistence Argentina 1980-2008," MPRA Paper 44482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Lau, Evan & Hamzah, Siti Nur Zahara, 2012. "Crimonometric Analysis: Testing the Deterrence Hypothesis in Sabah," MPRA Paper 39297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Branimir Jovanovic, 2013. "Aggregation Bias in Trade Elasticities: The Case of Macedonia," FIW Working Paper series 106, FIW.

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