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Is Being 'Soft on Crime' the Solution to Rising Crime Rates? Evidence from Germany

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  • Entorf, Horst

    ()
    (Goethe University Frankfurt)

  • Spengler, Hannes

    ()
    (University of Applied Sciences Mainz)

Abstract

Based on a theoretical framework on informal, custodial and non-custodial sentencing, the paper provides econometric tests on the effectiveness of police, public prosecution and courts. Using a unique dataset covering German states for the period 1977–2001, a comprehensive system of criminal prosecution indicators is derived and subsequently related to the incidence of six major offence categories using panel-econometrics. Empirical evidence suggests that the criminal policy of diversion failed as increasing shares of dismissals by prosecutors and judges enhance crime rates in Germany. Crime is significantly deterred by higher clearance and conviction rates, while the effects of indicators representing type (fine, probation, imprisonment) and severity (length of prison sentence, size of fine) of punishment are often small and insignificant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3710.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3710

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Keywords: evaluation of policy reforms; econometrics of crime; panel econometrics;

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Cited by:
  1. Bruno S. Frey, 2011. "Punishment – and Beyond," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 5(2), June.
  2. Entorf, Horst, 2011. "Turning 18: What a Difference Application of Adult Criminal Law Makes," MPRA Paper 29811, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Entorf, Horst, 2012. "Certainty and Severity of Sanctions in Classical and Behavioral Models of Deterrence: A Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 6516, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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