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Crime, fertility, and economic growth: Theory and evidence

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  • Neanidis, Kyriakos C.
  • Papadopoulou, Vea

Abstract

This paper studies the link between crime and fertility and the way by which they jointly impact on economic growth. In a three-period overlapping generations model, where health status in adulthood depends on health in childhood, adult agents allocate their time to work, leisure, child rearing and criminal activities. An autonomous increase in the probability offenders face in escaping apprehension, increases both crime and fertility non-monotonically, giving rise to an ambiguous effect on growth. A cross-country empirical examination, based on data that span four decades, supports the non-linear effects on both crime and fertility. At the same time, it reveals a negative effect on output growth.

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  • Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Papadopoulou, Vea, 2013. "Crime, fertility, and economic growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 101-121.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:91:y:2013:i:c:p:101-121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2013.04.007
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    7. Pengfei Jia & King Yoong Lim & Ali Raza, 2020. "Crime, different taxation, police spending and embodied human capital," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(5), pages 664-698, September.
    8. Jawadi, Fredj & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Idi Cheffou, Abdoulkarim & Augustine, Anish, 2021. "Does higher unemployment lead to greater criminality? Revisiting the debate over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 448-471.
    9. Víctor Hugo Torres Preciado, 2017. "Desempleo y criminalidad en los estados de la frontera norte de México: un enfoque espacial bayesiano de vectores auto-regresivos. (Unemployment and crime in the Northern-border states of Mexico: a sp," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 25-58, May.
    10. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Maria Paola Rana, 2014. "Entrepreneurs, Risk Aversion and Dynamic Firms," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 190, Economics, The University of Manchester.
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    13. Errol, Zeresh & Madsen, Jakob B. & Moslehi, Solmaz, 2021. "Social disorganization theory and crime in the advanced countries: Two centuries of evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 519-537.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Apprehension risk; Crime; Fertility; Growth; Non-linearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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