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Applied nonlinear dynamical system in social science. A nonlinear model for social control system: an application to Italian coercion system

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  • Rosalia Condorelli

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    Abstract

    Does an increase in police strength discourage an increase in crime levels? It would seem very likely so, despite the many platitudes common everywhere, even in the most serious literature on the subject. This research study, using Non-Linear Analysis on the Italian crime situation from 1985 to 2003, shows an almost non controvertible result. The police force really does seem to have a deterrence function on crime, particularly evident from the 90s on, where, as police strength increases, the number of crimes decrease. One of the most interesting aspects deriving from the non-linear model used, is the specific measurement of the number of crimes that might have been committed and that were not in virtue of the deterrent action of the Police Force. Up to now, such an acquisition seems to be lacking from other so called ‘traditional’ research, where such ‘indirect’ deterrence appears easily hypothesized, but impossible to determine. For this reason too, the adoption of a non-linear analysis logic shows its heuristic superiority able to shed light on certain aspects that in other analysis models would remain in the shadows. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11135-012-9666-7
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Quality & Quantity.

    Volume (Year): 47 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 1173-1198

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:47:y:2013:i:2:p:1173-1198

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    Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11135

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    Related research

    Keywords: Deterrence; Noncompliance; Coercion; Complexity theory; Non-linear competitive model;

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    1. Steven N. Durlauf & Daniel S. Nagin, 2010. "The Deterrent Effect of Imprisonment," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 43-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Benson, B.L. & Kim, I. & Rasmussen, D.W., 1992. "Estimating Deterrence Effects: A Public Choice Perspective on the Economics of Crime Literature," Working Papers 1992_12_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University.
    3. Kessler, Daniel P & Levitt, Steven D, 1999. "Using Sentence Enhancements to Distinguish between Deterrence and Incapacitation," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 343-63, April.
    4. Kelaher, Richard & Sarafidis, Vasilis, 2011. "Crime and Punishment Revisited," MPRA Paper 28213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-65, May-June.
    6. William Spelman, 2005. "Jobs or jails? The crime drop in Texas," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 133-165.
    7. Sjoquist, David Lawrence, 1973. "Property Crime and Economic Behavior: Some Empirical Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 439-46, June.
    8. Cook, Philip J., 1979. "The clearance rate as a measure of criminal justice system effectiveness," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 135-142, February.
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