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Property crime and macroeconomic variables in Malaysia: Some empirical evidence from a vector error-correction model

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  • Habibullah, M.S.
  • Law, Siong-Hook

Abstract

In this study we investigated the long-run relationship between property crime and three macro-financial economic variables in Malaysia for the period 1973 to 2003. In order to avoid what the econometrician term as ‘spurious regression problem’ we estimate the model using the vector-error correction (VECM) framework. The results tend to suggest that there are long-run relationship between property crime and the three macroeconomic variables in Malaysia. Our VECM results, however, suggest that there is no long-run and short-run causal effect of the three macro-variables on the property crime. Nevertheless, our variance decomposition results indicate that property crime in Malaysia is affect by economic growth measure by real income per capita. But, given the short sample nature of this study, our results should be viewed with cautious.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12112.

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Date of creation: 03 Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12112

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Keywords: property crime; Malaysia; vectot error-correction model;

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  1. Richard B. Freeman, 1996. "Why Do So Many Young American Men Commit Crimes and What Might We Do about It?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 25-42, Winter.
  2. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Gary S. Becker, 1968. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 169.
  5. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  6. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  7. Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lederman, Daniel & Loayza, Norman, 2002. "What causes violent crime?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1323-1357, July.
  8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  10. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-65, May-June.
  11. Garett Jones & Ali Kutan, 2004. "Volatile Interest Rates, Volatile Crime Rates: A new argument for interest-rate smoothing," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-694, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  12. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 58-78.
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