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Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests

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Author Info
Salih Gurcan Gulen (Boston College)
Abstract

The energy shocks of the 1970's had significant effects on the global economy. Were they engineered by an effective cartel of OPEC members acting to share the market by controlling output and influencing market prices? If OPEC was an effective cartel sharing the market among its members, there would be a long-run relationship between each member's individual production and total OPEC output. One would also expect OPEC's production to significantly affect the market price of oil as the organization is often accused of curbing production in order to raise prices. These implications of cartel behavior are tested via cointegration and causality tests. The likely effects of regime changes are dealt with using techniques developed by Perron (1989). There is evidence of output coordination among some members of the organization, especially in the output rationing era (1982-93). This is also the only period in which the causality from OPEC production to the price of oil is statistically significant. Overall, the evidence suggests that OPEC did act as a cartel in the 1980's in order to maintain prices, while it simply took advantage of market conditions in the 1970's and did not have to restrain output.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 318..

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1996
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Publication status: Published, The Energy Journal, Vol. 17, 2:43-57.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:318

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Related research
Keywords: OPEC; oil prices; cointegration; causality tests;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. M. A. Adelman, 1990. "The 1990 Oil Shock is Like the Others," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 11(4), pages 1-14.
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Carol Dahl & Mine Yucel, 1991. "Testing Alternative Hypotheses of Oil Producer Behavior," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 117-138.
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  8. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jacques Crémer & Djavad Salehi-isfahani, 1989. "The Rise and Fall of Oil Prices: a Competitive View," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 15-16, pages 20, Juillet-D. [Downloadable!]
  10. Pierce, David A. & Haugh, Larry D., 1977. "Causality in temporal systems : Characterization and a survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 265-293, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Guilkey, David K & Salemi, Michael K, 1982. "Small Sample Properties of Three Tests for Granger-Causal Ordering in a Bivariate Stochastic System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 668-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. David A. Pierce & Larry D. Haugh, 1977. "Causality in temporal systems: characterizations and a survey," Special Studies Papers 87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. M. A. Adelman, 1986. "The Competitive Floor to World Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 7(4), pages 9-31.
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