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Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests

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  • Salih Gurcan Gulen

    (Boston College)

Abstract

The energy shocks of the 1970's had significant effects on the global economy. Were they engineered by an effective cartel of OPEC members acting to share the market by controlling output and influencing market prices? If OPEC was an effective cartel sharing the market among its members, there would be a long-run relationship between each member's individual production and total OPEC output. One would also expect OPEC's production to significantly affect the market price of oil as the organization is often accused of curbing production in order to raise prices. These implications of cartel behavior are tested via cointegration and causality tests. The likely effects of regime changes are dealt with using techniques developed by Perron (1989). There is evidence of output coordination among some members of the organization, especially in the output rationing era (1982-93). This is also the only period in which the causality from OPEC production to the price of oil is statistically significant. Overall, the evidence suggests that OPEC did act as a cartel in the 1980's in order to maintain prices, while it simply took advantage of market conditions in the 1970's and did not have to restrain output.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 318..

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 1996
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, The Energy Journal, Vol. 17, 2:43-57.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:318

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Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
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Keywords: OPEC; oil prices; cointegration; causality tests;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Rolf Golombek & Alfonso A. Irarrazabal & Lin Ma, 2013. "OPEC's Market Power: An Empirical Dominant Firm Model for the Oil Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 4512, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Melanie Parravano & Luis Enrique Pedauga, 2008. "Oil market dynamics: A Markow chain analysis," Economía, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales (IIES). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Universidad de Los Andes. Mérida, Venezuela, vol. 33(25), pages 87-115, january-j.
  3. Berg, Elin & Kverndokk, Snorre & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 1997. "Gains from cartelisation in the oil market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(13), pages 1075-1091, November.
  4. Deb, Rahul & Fenske, James, 2009. "A Nonparametric Test of Strategic Behavior in the Cournot Model," MPRA Paper 16560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "Modeling OPEC behavior: theories of risk aversion for oil producer decisions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(15), pages 901-912, December.
  6. Mohaddes, K., 2012. "Econometric Modelling of World Oil Supplies: Terminal Price and the Time to Depletion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1212, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Bradford, Andrew & Belanger, Laura H. & Mclaughlin, John P. & Miki, Yosuke, 2008. "Determinants of OPEC production: Implications for OPEC behavior," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 333-351, March.
  8. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Pippenger, Michael K., 2010. "OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6045-6055, October.
  9. Dibooglu, Sel & AlGudhea, Salim N., 2007. "All time cheaters versus cheaters in distress: An examination of cheating and oil prices in OPEC," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 292-310, September.
  10. Bandyopadhyay, Kaushik Ranjan, 2009. "Does OPEC act as a Residual Producer?," MPRA Paper 25841, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
  11. repec:cam:camdae:1307 is not listed on IDEAS

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