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Real wage growth over the business cycle:contractual versus spot markets

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  • Bellou, Andriana
  • Kaymak, Baris

Abstract

We study the wage growth of job stayers over the business cycle, and show that wage adjustments within a job spell display significant history dependence. This is at odds with the spot market model, which implies that the wage growth of a worker within a job spell depends solely on the change in the contemporaneous economic conditions. Instead, we find that workers hired during recessions, or those who experienced unfavorable economic conditions since they were hired, receive larger wage raises during expansions, and are subject to smaller wage cuts during downswings. The change in the contemporaneous conditions, on the other hand, is not a significant determinant of wage growth. Our findings are consistent with a model of implicit insurance contracts where neither the employer nor the worker can fully commit to the contract.

Suggested Citation

  • Bellou, Andriana & Kaymak, Baris, 2011. "Real wage growth over the business cycle:contractual versus spot markets," MPRA Paper 30401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30401
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    Cited by:

    1. Jael, Paul, 2019. "Does Marginal Productivity Mean Anything in Real Economic Life ?," MPRA Paper 97968, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2020.
    2. Bellou, Andriana & Kaymak, Barış, 2012. "Wages, implicit contracts, and the business cycle: Evidence from a European panel," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 898-907.
    3. Jael, Paul, 2019. "Sommes-nous payés selon la productivité marginale ? [Does Marginal Productivity Mean Anything in Real Economic Life ?]," MPRA Paper 93814, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles; Wage Rigidity; Implicit Contracts; Cyclical Selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts

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