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Job Selection and Wages over the Business Cycle

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  • Marcus Hagedorn
  • Iourii Manovskii

Abstract

We consider a model with on-the-job search where current wages depend only on current aggregate labor market conditions and idiosyncratic match-specific productivities. We show theoretically that the model replicates the findings in Bils (1985) and Beaudry and DiNardo (1991) on the history dependence in wages. We develop a method to measure match qualities in the data and show empirically that various variables summarizing past aggregate labor market conditions have explanatory power for current wages only because they are correlated with match qualities. They lose any predictive power once match qualities are accounted for. (JEL E3, E24, J3)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 103 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 771-803

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:2:p:771-803

Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.2.771
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  1. McDonald, J.T. & Worswick, C., 1997. "Wages, Implicit Contracts and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Canadian Micro Data," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 588, The University of Melbourne.
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Cited by:
  1. Haefke, Christian & Reiter, Michael, 2011. "What Do Participation Fluctuations Tell Us About Labor Supply Elasticities?," IZA Discussion Papers 6039, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Legge, Stefan & Schmid, Lukas, 2013. "Rankings, Random Successes, and Individual Performance," Economics Working Paper Series 1340, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  3. Liu, Kai & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Sørensen, Erik Ø., 2012. "Good Skills in Bad Times: Cyclical Skill Mismatch and the Long-Term Effects of Graduating in a Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 6820, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Bellou, Andriana & Kaymak, Baris, 2011. "Real wage growth over the business cycle:contractual versus spot markets," MPRA Paper 30401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Peter Cappelli & Monika Hamori, 2013. "Who Says Yes When the Headhunter Calls? Understanding Executive Job Search Behavior," NBER Working Papers 19295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Andy Snell & Jonathan Thomas & Zhewei Wang, 2014. "A Competitive Model of Worker Replacement and Wage Rigidity," CESifo Working Paper Series 4610, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Theodore S. Wiles, 2011. "Aggregate real wages: macro fluctuations and micro drivers," Working Paper Series 2011-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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