The Taylor rule: can it be supported by the data?
AbstractThe Taylor equation is a simple monetary policy rule that determines the Central Bank’s policy rate as a function of inflation and output. A significant body of literature verifies the consistency of the Taylor rule with the data. However, recently there has been a growing literature regarding the validity of the estimated parameters due to the non-stationarity of the interest rate. In this paper I test the consistency of the Taylor rule with the Greek data for the period 1996-2004. It appears that the data do not support the Taylor rule in the sense that they do not form a cointegration set of variables. Therefore, the estimated parameters should be considered fragile and the forecasting for the interest rate as a function of inflation and output should not be expected to be adequately consistent with the actual data.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1650.
Date of creation: 31 Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Taylor rule; Monetary policy; Central bank; EMU; Greece;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-02-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2007-02-10 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-02-10 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2007-02-10 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986.
"Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
781R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 1987.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 1998. "A Red Letter Day?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1804, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998.
"Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 1999. "The value of interest rate smoothing : how the private sector helps the Federal Reserve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 47-64.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 1999.
"The Taylor Rule and Interest Rates in the EMU Area,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "An empirical comparison of Bundesbank and ECB monetary policy rules," International Finance Discussion Papers 705, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2003.
"Empirical estimates of reaction functions for the euro area,"
Working Paper Series
0206, European Central Bank.
- Dieter Gerdesmeier & Barbara Roffia, 2004. "Empirical Estimates of Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(I), pages 37-66, March.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981.
"Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,"
451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "Uncertainty and the Taylor rule in a simple model of the Euro-area economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, EconWPA.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Massimo Rostagno, 2001. "Money Growth Monitoring and the Taylor Rule," NBER Working Papers 8539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002.
"Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2002. "Real-time estimation of trend output and the illusion of interest rate smoothing," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 17-34.
- Maria ELEFTHERIOU, 2003. "On the Robustness of the "Taylor Rule" in the EMU," Economics Working Papers ECO2003/17, European University Institute.
- Söderlind, Paul & Söderström, Ulf & Vredin, Anders, 2003.
"Taylor Rules and the Predictability of Interest Rates,"
Working Paper Series
147, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Söderlind, Paul & Söderström, Ulf & Vredin, Anders, 2003. "Taylor Rules and the Predictability of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domenech, Rafael & Ledo, Mayte & Taguas, David, 2002.
"Some new results on interest rate rules in EMU and in the US,"
Journal of Economics and Business,
Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 431-446.
- Rafael Domenech & MÂª Teresa Ledo & David Taguas, 2000. "Some new results on interest rate rules in EMU and in the US," Working Papers 0002, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985.
"Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
- Gert Schnabel & Stefan Gerlach, 1999. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area: a note," BIS Working Papers 73, Bank for International Settlements.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.