Testing Linearity in Term Structures
AbstractRecent empirical studies suggests that affine models, a popular framework to analyse term structures of interest rates, are misspecified. This evidence is mainly based on time series properties of the data. This article re-examines this controversy, by investigating both cross-sectional and dynamic properties of affine models. To do so, it applies robust non-parametric techniques to two different sets of financial data, which contain information on the UK and US yield curve. The analysis shows the strong non-linearity in the relationship of yields to the US and UK short rate. The non-linear pattern is concave in the state variable, and increasing with respect to the maturity, for both countries. Linear and non-linear specifications are then compared by means of a formal statistical criterion, the Generalised Likelihood-Ratio test statistics, which confirms evidence against the linear specification.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 16471.
Date of creation: 13 Jul 2009
Date of revision:
interest rates; term structure; affine models; non-linearity; non-parametric regression.;
Other versions of this item:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-08-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2009-08-02 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-08-02 (Monetary Economics)
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