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Empirical comparisons in short-term interest rate models using nonparametric methods

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Author Info
Arapis, Manuel
Gao, Jiti

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Abstract

This study applies the nonparametric estimation procedure to the diffusion process modeling the dynamics of short-term interest rates. This approach allows us to operate in continuous time, estimating the continuous-time model, despite the use of discrete data. Three methods are proposed. We apply these methods to two important financial data. After selecting an appropriate bandwidth for each dataset, empirical comparisons indicate that the specification of the drift has a considerable impact on the pricing of derivatives through its effect on the diffusion function. In addition, a novel nonparametric test has been proposed for specification of linearity in the drift. Our simulation directs us to reject the null hypothesis of linearity at the 5% significance level for the two financial datasets.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11974/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11974.

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Date of creation: 23 Sep 2004
Date of revision: 23 Dec 2005
Publication status: Published in Journal of Financial Econometrics 1.4(2006): pp. 310-345
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11974

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Related research
Keywords: Diffusion process; drift function; kernel density estimation; stochastic volatility;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Jiang, George J. & Knight, John L., 1997. "A Nonparametric Approach to the Estimation of Diffusion Processes, With an Application to a Short-Term Interest Rate Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 615-645, October. [Downloadable!]
  2. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-87.
  5. Bandi, Federico M., 2002. "Short-term interest rate dynamics: a spatial approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 73-110, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. John Xu Zheng, 1996. "A consistent test of functional form via nonparametric estimation techniques," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 263-289, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Li, Qi, 1999. "Consistent model specification tests for time series econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 101-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Nicolau, Jo o, 2003. "Bias Reduction In Nonparametric Diffusion Coefficient Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(05), pages 754-777, October. [Downloadable!]
  9. Yongmiao Hong, 2005. "Nonparametric Specification Testing for Continuous-Time Models with Applications to Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 37-84. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gao, Jiti & King, Maxwell, 2004. "Adaptive Testing In Continuous-Time Diffusion Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 844-882, October. [Downloadable!]
  11. Song Xi Chen & Wolfgang Härdle & Ming Li, 2003. "An empirical likelihood goodness-of-fit test for time series," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(3), pages 663-678. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Federico M. Bandi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 241-283, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 1998. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Finance 9808005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 363-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Durham, Garland B., 2003. "Likelihood-based specification analysis of continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 463-487, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Charlotte Christiansen, 2008. "Mean Reversion in US and International Short Rates," CREATES Research Papers 2008-47, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gao, jiti & Casas, isabel, 2006. "Specification testing in discretized diffusion models: Theory and practice," MPRA Paper 11980, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Peroni, Chiara, 2007. "A non-parametric investigation of risk premia," MPRA Paper 5126, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
  4. Li, Minqiang, 2008. "A Damped Diffusion Framework for Financial Modeling and Closed-form Maximum Likelihood Estimation," MPRA Paper 11185, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gao, Jiti & Gijbels, Irene, 2005. "Bandwidth selection for nonparametric kernel testing," MPRA Paper 11982, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2007. [Downloadable!]
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