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Modeling risk of international country relations

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Author Info
Sveshnikov, Sergey
Bocharnikov, Victor

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Abstract

In this article we consider the modeling principles and model for estimation of tension of international relations of a country with other countries. We use the tension of international relations as partial indicator of international political-economical country-risk. The model bases on estimation of coincidences and contradictions of views of countries concerning decision of political, economic, military, domestic and international problems and projects. The model aggregates detailed estimations of separate problems into composite estimation of relations tension with using of fuzzy measures and integrals. The model allows receiving quantitative estimations of tension of international relations which are necessary for making investment decisions. We use this model for estimation of international political-economical risk of Ukraine.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15745/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15745.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15745

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Related research
Keywords: model; international relations; fuzzy measure; political-economical risks;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
F52 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - Computational Techniques
D41 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Perfect Competition
C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Moser, Christoph & Nestmann, Thorsten & Wedow, Michael, 2006. "Political risk and export promotion: evidence from Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,36, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & Vladimir Kuhl Teles, 2004. "An Empirical Model of the Brazilian Country Risk - An Extension of the Beta Country Risk Model," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 284, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.

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