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Modeling risk of international country relations

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  • Sveshnikov, Sergey
  • Bocharnikov, Victor

Abstract

In this article we consider the modeling principles and model for estimation of tension of international relations of a country with other countries. We use the tension of international relations as partial indicator of international political-economical country-risk. The model bases on estimation of coincidences and contradictions of views of countries concerning decision of political, economic, military, domestic and international problems and projects. The model aggregates detailed estimations of separate problems into composite estimation of relations tension with using of fuzzy measures and integrals. The model allows receiving quantitative estimations of tension of international relations which are necessary for making investment decisions. We use this model for estimation of international political-economical risk of Ukraine.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 15745.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:15745

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Keywords: model; international relations; fuzzy measure; political-economical risks;

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  1. Joaquim Pinto de Andrade & Vladimir Kuhl Teles, 2004. "An Empirical Model of the Brazilian Country Risk - An Extension of the Beta Country Risk Model," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 284, Econometric Society.
  2. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
  3. Oya Erdogdu, 2008. "Political Decisions, Defense And Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 27-35.
  4. Nestmann, Thorsten & Moser, Christoph & Wedow, Michael, 2006. "Political risk and export promotion: Evidence from Germany," Research Notes 23, Deutsche Bank Research.
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