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An Empirical Model of the Brazilian Country Risk - An Extension of the Beta Country Risk Model

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  • Joaquim Pinto de Andrade
  • Vladimir Kuhl Teles

Abstract

This paper develops a statistical model to study the brazilian country risk using a country beta model in spirit of Harvey and Zhou (1993), Erb et. al. (1996a, 1996b) and Gangemi et. al. (2000). Specifically, we analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables using a time-varying parameter approach. An extension of the original model is applied in order to verify the parameters’ stability in time. We find that monetary policy have a significant and stable impact on Brazil’s country risk and international reserves have a significant impact only in fixed exchange rate period

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File URL: http://repec.org/esLATM04/up.23354.1082072159.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 284.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:284

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Keywords: beta risk; country risk;

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  1. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 2001. "Country risk and capital flow reversals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 73-77, July.
  2. Campbell R. Harvey & Guofu Zhou, 1993. "International asset pricing with alternative distributional specifications," CEMA Working Papers 277, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  3. Marcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Tatiana Glindmeier Didier Brandao, 2001. "Taxa de Juros, Risco Cambial e Risco Brasil," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 031, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  5. Bernard Dumas, 1994. "A Test of the International CAPM Using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables," NBER Working Papers 4657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Gangemi, Michael A. M. & Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W., 2000. "Modeling Australia's country risk: a country beta approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 259-276.
  7. Abell, John D. & Krueger, Thomas M., 1989. "Macroeconomic influences on beta," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 185-193, May.
  8. Dumas, B., 1994. "A Test of the International Capm using Business Cycles Indicators as Instrumental Variables," DELTA Working Papers 94-07, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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Cited by:
  1. Hassan, Gazi & Hisham, Al refai, 2010. "Can Macroeconomic Factors Explain Equity Returns in the Long Run? The Case of Jordan," MPRA Paper 22713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2008:i:14:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Sveshnikov, Sergey & Bocharnikov, Victor, 2009. "Modeling risk of international country relations," MPRA Paper 15745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Marshall, Andrew & Maulana, Tubagus & Tang, Leilei, 2009. "The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 250-259, December.

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