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Modeling Risk Of International Country Relations

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  • Sergey SVESHNIKOV
  • Victor BOCHARNIKOV

Abstract

In this article we consider the modeling principles and model for estimation of tension of international relations of a country with other countries. We use the tension of international relations as partial indicator of international political-economical country-risk. The model bases on estimation of coincidences and contradictions of views of countries concerning decision of political, economic, military, domestic and international problems and projects. The model aggregates detailed estimations of separate problems into composite estimation of relations tension with using of fuzzy measures and integrals. The model allows receiving quantitative estimations of tension of international relations which are necessary for making investment decisions. We use this model for estimation of international political-economical risk of Ukraine.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova in its journal Journal of Applied Economic Sciences.

Volume (Year): 4 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4(10)_Winter2009 ()
Pages: 558-569

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Handle: RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:4:y:2009:i:4(10)_winter2009:p:86

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Web page: http://www2.spiruharet.ro/facultati/facultate.php?id=14
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Related research

Keywords: Model; International relations; Fuzzy measure; Political-economical risks;

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  1. Joaquim Andrade & Vladimir Teles, 2006. "An empirical model of the Brazilian country risk -- an extension of the beta country risk model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1271-1278.
  2. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 1998. "Capital flight and political risk," Research Report 98C34, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  3. Moser, Christoph & Nestmann, Thorsten & Wedow, Michael, 2006. "Political risk and export promotion: evidence from Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,36, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Erdogdu, Oya Safinaz, 2006. "Political Decisions, Defence and Growth," MPRA Paper 2520, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2007.
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