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Political Risk and Export Promotion: Evidence from Germany

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  • Christoph Moser
  • Thorsten Nestmann
  • Michael Wedow

Abstract

Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that public export credit guarantees mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We employ an empirical trade gravity model, where we explicitly control for political risk in the importing country in order to evaluate the effect of export guarantees. Using a novel data set on guarantees, we estimate the effect of guarantees in a static and dynamic panel model. We find a statistically and economically significant positive effect of public export guarantees on exports which indicates that export promotion is indeed effective. Furthermore, political risk turns out to be an important obstacle for exports and hence should be taken into account in any empirical model of trade. Copyright 2008 The Authors. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal World Economy.

Volume (Year): 31 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 (06)
Pages: 781-803

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:6:p:781-803

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References

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  1. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2001. "Why Some Firms Export," NBER Working Papers 8349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Dewit, Gerda, 2001. "Intervention in risky export markets: insurance, strategic action or aid?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 575-592, September.
  3. Andrew B. Bernard & Joachim Wagner, 1998. "Export Entry and Exit by German Firms," NBER Working Papers 6538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
  5. Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 2001. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," DELTA Working Papers 2001-08, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  6. Elhanan Helpman, 1998. "The Structure of Foreign Trade," NBER Working Papers 6752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Rose, Andrew K, 2005. "The Foreign Service and Foreign Trade: Embassies as Export Promotion," CEPR Discussion Papers 4953, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Alsem, K.J., 2003. "Insurability of export credit risks," Research Report 03F07, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  10. Rienstra-Munnicha, Paul & Turvey, Calum G., 2002. "The Relationship Between Exports, Credit Risk And Credit Guarantees," Working Papers 34115, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  11. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  12. Filip Abraham & Gerda Dewit, 2000. "Export Promotion Via Official Export Insurance," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-26, January.
  13. Salvador Gil & Rafael Llorca & José A. Martínez Serrano, 2008. "Measuring the impact of regional export promotion: The Spanish case," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(1), pages 139-146, 03.
  14. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June.
  15. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  16. Rienstra-Munnicha, Paul & Turvey, Calum G., 2002. "The Relationship Between Exports, Credit Risk And Credit Guarantees," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19583, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  17. Funatsu, Hideki, 1986. "Export Credit Insurance and Moral Hazard," 商学討究 (Shogaku Tokyu), Otaru University of Commerce, vol. 36(3), pages 217-235.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mathias Schmit & Thierry Denuit & Laurent Gheeraert & Cédric Warny, 2011. "Roles, Missions and Business Models of Public Financial Institutions in Europe," Chapters in SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.
  2. Karel Janda & Eva Michalíková & Jiøí Skuhrovec, 2012. "Credit Support for Export: Econometric Evidence from the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2012/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2012.
  3. Karel Janda & Eva Michalikova & Jiri Skuhrovec, 2012. "Credit Support for Export: Evidence from the Czech Republic," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp461, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  4. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Park, Donghyun, 2011. "Do export promotion agencies increase exports?," IDE Discussion Papers 313, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  5. Sergey SVESHNIKOV & Victor BOCHARNIKOV, 2009. "Modeling Risk Of International Country Relations," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(4(10)_Win), pages 558-569.
  6. Joel Stiebale, 2008. "Do Financial Constraints Matter for Foreign Market Entry? – A Firm-Level Examination," Ruhr Economic Papers 0051, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  7. Fuchs, Michaela & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2008. "Institutions, trade, and integration: what can be expected within the enlarged EU?," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 16/08, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  8. Zheng, J., 2012. "Essays on pensions, health expectancy and credit insurance," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5661243, Tilburg University.
  9. Karel Janda & Eva Michalíková & Věra Potácelová, 2010. "Gravity and Fiscal Models of Government Support of Export Credit in the Czech Republic," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(3), pages 305-325.
  10. Johannes VAN BIESEBROECK & Emily YU & Shenjie CHEN, 2010. "The impact of trade promotion services on Canadian exporter performance," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces10.14, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
  11. repec:cmj:journl:y:2013:i:27:clipicie is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Martin Gassebner & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2010. "Where do Creditor Rights Matter? Creditor Rights, Political Constraints, and Cross-Border M&A Activity," Working Papers CEB 10-019.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  13. Völz, Manja & Wedow, Michael, 2009. "Does banks size distort market prices? Evidence for too-big-to-fail in the CDS market," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Erdal Yalcin, 2013. "Export Credit Guarantees and Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Germany," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(8), pages 967-999, 08.
  15. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2010. "Export Promotion: Heterogeneous Programs and Heterogeneous Effects," IDB Publications 36759, Inter-American Development Bank.

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