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Determinants of Country Beta Risk in Poland

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Author Info
Wdowinski, Piotr

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Abstract

In the paper we analyze determinants of the capital market beta risk in Poland in the monthly period 1996-2002. The beta risk is measured as a time-varying parameter estimated in a regression of the Warsaw stock indexes (WIG and WIG20 separately) on major foreign stock market indexes (DJIA, NASDAQ, DAX and FTSE). The individual monthly beta parameters time series are computed as structural regression parameters estimated for daily data in monthly sub-periods in regressions for WIG and WIG20 indexes on individual foreign stock market indexes. The beta risk is an average of monthly individual beta parameters. We put forward a hypothesis that the estimated beta risk depends on monetary and real variables expressing the economic performance of the Polish economy. Hence, we build monetary and real factors models. As explanatory variables of risk, we examine: income, productivity, trade balance, budget deficit, interest rate and the zloty exchange rate. The risk factors are expressed as differentials relative to the world economy for which stands the U.S. economy. According to Fair and Shiller (1990), we test for relative one-period-ahead predictive performance of monetary and real factors models of capital market risk in Poland in the period 1999-2002. We find that monetary variables as exchange rate and interest rate have relatively more power than real variables in explaining the beta market risk in Poland.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1120.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1120

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Keywords: country beta risk; capital market; risk modelling; econometric model; forecasting; Poland;

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  6. Gangemi, Michael A. M. & Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W., 2000. "Modeling Australia's country risk: a country beta approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 259-276. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Perotti, Enrico C. & van Oijen, Pieter, 2001. "Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 43-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Jongmoo Jay Choi & Murli Rajan, 1997. "A Joint Test of Market Segmentation and Exchange Risk Factor in International Capital Market," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 29-49, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Stephen Godfrey & Ramon Espinosa, 1996. "A Practical Approach To Calculating Costs Of Equity For Investments In Emerging Markets," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 9(3), pages 80-90. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. de Haan, Jakob & Siermann, Clemens L J & van Lubek, Erna, 1997. "Political Instability and Country Risk: New Evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 703-07, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bracker, Kevin & Koch, Paul D., 1999. "Economic determinants of the correlation structure across international equity markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 443-471. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Piotr Wdowinski, 2005. "Financial Markets and Economic Growth in Poland: Simulations with an Econometric Model," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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