Does Ramadan Have Any Effect on Food Prices: A Dual-Calendar Perspective on the Turkish Data
AbstractThe effects of a specific religious tradition on the food prices establish the central theme of this paper. In specific, I investigate whether the month Ramadan has any effect on food prices. I perform the analysis under two alternative calendar conventions, namely the Gregorian and Hijri calendars. Under both conventions, the paper reveals the effects of Ramadan, yet these effects are better captured when the latter is used. This highlights the importance of the calendar choice on econometric analysis, on the basis of a simple-yet-genuine socio-economic exercise. Possible benefits from this exercise in pedagogical terms as well as in inflation forecasting are also addressed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1141.
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Seasonality; Ramadan; Food prices; Calendar effects;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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- Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001.
"The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882, December.
- Muhammad Akmal & Muhammad Usman Abbasi, 2011. "Ramadan Effect on Price Movements: Evidence from Pakistan," Working Papers id:3937, eSocialSciences.
- Riaz Riazuddin, 2012. "Construction and Seasonal Patterns of Islamic Hijri Calendar Monthly Time Series: An Application to Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Pakistan," Working Papers id:4927, eSocialSciences.
- Moayedi, Vafa, 2012. "Detecting Islamic Calendar Effects on U.S. Meat Consumption: Is the Muslim Population Larger than Widely Assumed?," MPRA Paper 41554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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