IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/110985.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hedging Cryptocurrency Options

Author

Listed:
  • Matic, Jovanka Lili
  • Packham, Natalie
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl

Abstract

The cryptocurrency (CC) market is volatile, non-stationary and non-continuous. Together with liquid derivatives markets, this poses a unique opportunity to study risk management, especially the hedging of options, in a turbulent market. We study the hedge behaviour and effectiveness for the class of affine jump diffusion models and infinite activity Lévy processes. First, market data is calibrated to SVI-implied volatility surfaces to price options. To cover a wide range of market dynamics, we generate Monte Carlo price paths using an SVCJ model (stochastic volatility with correlated jumps) assumption and a close-to-actual-market GARCH-filtered kernel density estimation. In these two markets, options are dynamically hedged with Delta, Delta-Gamma, Delta-Vega and Minimum Variance strategies. Including a wide range of market models allows to understand the trade-off in the hedge performance between complete, but overly parsimonious models, and more complex, but incomplete models. The calibration results reveal a strong indication for stochastic volatility, low jump frequency and evidence of infinite activity. Short-dated options are less sensitive to volatility or Gamma hedges. For longer-date options, good tail risk reduction is consistently achieved with multiple-instrument hedges. This is persistently accomplished with complete market models with stochastic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Matic, Jovanka Lili & Packham, Natalie & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2021. "Hedging Cryptocurrency Options," MPRA Paper 110985, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110985
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110985/8/MPRA_paper_110985.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
    2. Jim Gatheral & Antoine Jacquier, 2014. "Arbitrage-free SVI volatility surfaces," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 59-71, January.
    3. Nicole Branger & Eva Krautheim & Christian Schlag & Norman Seeger, 2012. "Hedging under model misspecification: All risk factors are equal, but some are more equal than others …," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 397-430, May.
    4. Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
    5. Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003. "Alternative models for stock price dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, June.
    8. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    9. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2007. "Model Specification and Risk Premia: Evidence from Futures Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1453-1490, June.
    10. Trimborn, Simon & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2018. "CRIX an Index for cryptocurrencies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 107-122.
    11. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    12. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    13. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    14. Ai Jun Hou & Weining Wang & Cathy Y H Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2020. "Pricing Cryptocurrency Options," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 250-279.
    15. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
    16. Rolf Poulsen & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppe & Christian-Oliver Ewald, 2009. "Risk minimization in stochastic volatility models: model risk and empirical performance," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 693-704.
    17. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    18. Dilip B. Madan & Sofie Reyners & Wim Schoutens, 2019. "Advanced model calibration on bitcoin options," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 117-137, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jovanka Lili Matic & Natalie Packham & Wolfgang Karl Härdle, 2023. "Hedging cryptocurrency options," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 91-133, April.
    2. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2005. "Volatility forecasting," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    4. Henri Bertholon & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2006. "Pricing and Inference with Mixtures of Conditionally Normal Processes," Working Papers 2006-28, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    5. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat & Wang, Yintian, 2008. "Option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 272-297, December.
    6. Carverhill, Andrew & Luo, Dan, 2023. "A Bayesian analysis of time-varying jump risk in S&P 500 returns and options," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Chayawat Ornthanalai, 2009. "Exploring Time-Varying Jump Intensities: Evidence from S&P500 Returns and Options," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-34, CIRANO.
    8. Ballotta, Laura & Rayée, Grégory, 2022. "Smiles & smirks: Volatility and leverage by jumps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(3), pages 1145-1161.
    9. Timothy Sharp & Steven Li & David Allen, 2010. "Empirical performance of affine option pricing models: evidence from the Australian index options market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 501-514.
    10. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Hou, Ai Jun & Wang, Weining, 2018. "Pricing Cryptocurrency options: the case of CRIX and Bitcoin," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-004, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    11. Anatoliy Swishchuk, 2013. "Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8660, January.
    12. Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk, 2013. "The dynamics of commodity prices," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 527-542, March.
    13. Du Du & Dan Luo, 2019. "The Pricing of Jump Propagation: Evidence from Spot and Options Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 2360-2387, May.
    14. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2014. "A closed-form solution for options with ambiguity about stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 125-159, July.
    15. Augustyniak, Maciej & Badescu, Alexandru & Bégin, Jean-François, 2023. "A discrete-time hedging framework with multiple factors and fat tails: On what matters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 416-444.
    16. F. Cacace & A. Germani & M. Papi, 2019. "On parameter estimation of Heston’s stochastic volatility model: a polynomial filtering method," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 42(2), pages 503-525, December.
    17. Christoffersen, Peter & Heston, Steve & Jacobs, Kris, 2006. "Option valuation with conditional skewness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 253-284.
    18. Byun, Suk Joon & Jeon, Byoung Hyun & Min, Byungsun & Yoon, Sun-Joong, 2015. "The role of the variance premium in Jump-GARCH option pricing models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 38-56.
    19. Jovanka Lili Matic & Natalie Packham & Wolfgang Karl Hardle, 2021. "Hedging Cryptocurrency Options," Papers 2112.06807, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    20. Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2009. "The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work So Well," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1914-1932, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrency options; hedging; bitcoin; digital finance; volatile markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110985. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.