IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/110193.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Co-Movement between Foreign Reserves, Economic Growth and Money Supply: Evidence from the WAMZ Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Joof, Foday

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of foreign currency reserve and economic growth on money supply, using a panel data of five West African Monetary Zone (WAMZs) member states from 2001-2019. The study employed the dynamic Panel techniques (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square) and the Static method (Fixed Effect model) for robustness check. The long run results showed that foreign currency reserves (FCR) have a positive impact on money supply, implying that a one percent increase in foreign currency reserves augments money supply (M2) by 2.87%, 0.44% and 0.08%, respectively in the long run. Similarly, economic growth is associated with an increase in money supply in both models. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin Causality (2012) estimation revealed a feedback association between foreign currency reserve and money supply. This means that that foreign reserves and money supply are complementary. Conversely, a unidirectional causality moving from economic growth to M2 is observed, demonstrating that economic growth causes M2 and not otherwise. This outcome is explained by the QTM (quantity theory of money) in which the velocity of money is a positive function of total money supply. As money circulates in the economy as a result of a surge in investments, consequently increases money stock. Similarly, investment opportunities that are been exploited day-by-day explains the growing money stock. Central banks should endeavor to monitor the expansionary influence of net foreign assets (NFA) on money supply growth in the WAMZ by establishing suitable methods to sterilize foreign exchange infusions into the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Joof, Foday, 2021. "The Co-Movement between Foreign Reserves, Economic Growth and Money Supply: Evidence from the WAMZ Countries," MPRA Paper 110193, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110193
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110193/1/MPRA_paper_110193.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    2. Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012. "Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
    3. Samih Antoine Azar, 2014. "Foreign Reserve Accretion and Money Supply Creation: Lebanon¡¯s Experience under an Adjustable Peg," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(3), pages 86-95, July.
    4. Daniela Zapodeanu & Mihail Ioan Cociuba, 2010. "Linking Money Supply With The Gross Domestic Product In Romania," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(12), pages 1-50.
    5. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    6. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    7. Agya Atabani Adi & Joshua Sunday Riti, 2017. "Determination of Long and Short Run Demand for Money in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) Countries: A Panel Analysis," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 2(2), pages 79-97, December.
    8. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, July.
    9. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    10. Claudio E. V. Borio, 1995. "The structure of credit to the non-goverment sector and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy: a cross-country comparison," BIS Working Papers 24, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Aliya Zhakanova Isiksal & Foday Joof, 2021. "Impact of bank performance on energy consumption: evidence from selected commonwealth member states," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 43(4), pages 402-418.
    12. Emmanuel Dodzi K. Havi & Patrick Enu, 2014. "The Effect of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy on Ghana’s Economic Growth: Which Policy Is More Potent?," International Journal of Empirical Finance, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 61-75.
    13. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    14. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    15. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    16. Forgha Godfrey NJIMANTED & Daniel AKUME & Emmanuel Mbella MUKETE, 2016. "The Impact of Key Monetary Variables on the Economic Growth of the CEMAC Zone," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 4(2), pages 54-67.
    17. Joof, Foday & Tursoy, Turgut, 2020. "The Mystery behind Foreign Reserve Sterilization: Empirical Evidence from The Gambia," MPRA Paper 99929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jacobo Campo Robledo & Henry Antonio Mendoza Tolosa, 2014. "Gasto Público y Crecimiento Económico regional en Colombia (1984 - 2012)," Documentos de Trabajo 12425, Universidad Católica de Colombia.
    2. Kuan‐Min Wang, 2010. "Monetary Policy Impulses and Retail Interest Rate Pass‐Through in Asian Banking Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 253-287, September.
    3. In Choi, 2012. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    4. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Haider Mahmood, 2020. "Oil Price and Energy Depletion Nexus in GCC Countries: Asymmetry Analyses," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-13, June.
    5. Emrah KOÇAK & Nısfet UZAY, 2018. "Democracy, Economic Freedoms and Economic Growth: An Investigation on the Role of Institutions," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(36).
    6. Wagner, Martin, 2008. "The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 388-408, August.
    7. Jacobo Campo & Henry Mendoza, 2018. "Public expenditure and economic growth: a regional analysis for Colombia, 1984-2012," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 88, pages 77-108, Enero - J.
    8. Jacobo Campo Robledo & Juan Pablo Herrera Saavedra, 2016. "Patentes y crecimiento económico: ¿innovación de residentes o no residentes?," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 76, February.
    9. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2013. "Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 469-476.
    10. Kahia, Montassar & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2016. "Impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth: New evidence from the MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries (NOECs)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 102-115.
    11. Carlos Alberto Barreto Nieto & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2012. "Relación a largo plazo entre consumo de energía y PIB en América Latina: Una evaluación empírica con datos panel," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, October.
    12. João Valle e Azevedo & João Ritto & Pedro Teles, 2022. "The Neutrality Of Nominal Rates: How Long Is The Long Run?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1745-1777, November.
    13. Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Reinvest the relationship between exports and economic growth in African countries: New insights from innovative econometric methods," MPRA Paper 108785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Campo, Jacobo & Mendoza, Henry, 2018. "Gasto público y crecimiento económico: un análisis regional para Colombia, 1984-2012," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 88, pages 77-108, January.
    15. Karmaker, Shamal Chandra & Hosan, Shahadat & Chapman, Andrew J. & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2021. "The role of environmental taxes on technological innovation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    16. Jushan Bai & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2013. "Testing panel cointegration with unobservable dynamic common factors that are correlated with the regressors," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(2), pages 222-249, June.
    17. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2013. "Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: A panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 251-258.
    18. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    19. Nicholas Apergis & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2013. "The Dynamic Relationship between House Prices and Output: Evidence from US Metropolitan Statistical Areas," Working Papers 201349, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    20. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Aid Absorption and Spending in Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Working Paper Series 1010, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign currency reserve; money supply; economic growth; WAMZ; Dynamic Model ; Static Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110193. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.