IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pcp/pucwps/wp00483.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Effects of Loan Supply Shocks: Empirical Evidence for Peru

Author

Listed:
  • Jefferson Martínez

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • Gabriel Rodríguez

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú / Fiscal Council of Peru)

Abstract

This paper quantifies and assesses the impact of an adverse loan supply (LS) shock on Peruís main macroeconomic aggregates using a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model in combination with an identification scheme with sign restrictions. The main results indicate that an adverse LS shock: (i) reduces credit and real GDP growth by 372 and 75 basis points in the impact period, respectively; (ii) explains 11.2% of real GDP growth variability on average over the following 20 quarters; and (iii) explained a 180-basis point fall in real GDP growth on average during 2009Q1-2010Q1 in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Additionally, the sensitivity analysis shows that the results are robust to alternative identification schemes with sign restrictions; and that an adverse LS shock has a greater impact on non-primary real GDP growth. JEL Classification-JEL: C11, E32, E51.

Suggested Citation

  • Jefferson Martínez & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of Loan Supply Shocks: Empirical Evidence for Peru," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-483, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00483
    DOI: 10.18800/2079-8474.0483
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://doi.org/10.18800/2079-8474.0483
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18800/2079-8474.0483?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 3-35, September.
    2. Jan Groen, 2004. "Corporate credit, stock price inflation and economic fluctuations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(18), pages 1995-2006.
    3. Luca Gambetti & Alberto Musso, 2017. "Loan Supply Shocks and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 764-782, June.
    4. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    5. Goodfriend, Marvin & McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1480-1507, July.
    6. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
    7. Canova, Fabio & Paustian, Matthias, 2011. "Business cycle measurement with some theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 345-361.
    8. Paustian Matthias, 2007. "Assessing Sign Restrictions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, August.
    9. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    10. Mr. Roland Straub & Gert Peersman, 2006. "Putting the New Keynesian Model to a Test," IMF Working Papers 2006/135, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Busch, Ulrike & Scharnagl, Michael & Scheithauer, Jan, 2010. "Loan supply in Germany during the financial crisis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    13. Atta-Mensah, Joseph & Dib, Ali, 2008. "Bank lending, credit shocks, and the transmission of Canadian monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 159-176.
    14. Paul Castillo Bardález & Jorge Salas, 2010. "Los términos de intercambio como impulsores de fluctuaciones económicas en economías en desarrollo: estudio empírico," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2010, July-Dece.
    15. Musso, Alberto & Neri, Stefano & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3019-3041, November.
    16. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    17. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    18. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    19. Pérez-Forero, Fernando & Vega, Marco, 2014. "The Dynamic Effects of Interest Rates and Reserve Requirements," Working Papers 2014-018, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    20. Oscar Dancourt, 2012. "Crédito Bancario, Tasa De Interés De Política Y Tasa De Encaje En El Perú," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2012-342, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    2. Guevara, Carlos & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "The role of credit supply shocks in pacific alliance countries: A TVP-VAR-SV approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Gabriel Rodríguez & Carlos Guevara, 2018. "The Role of Loan Supply Shocks in Pacific Alliance Countries: A TVP-VAR-SV Approach," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2018-467, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    4. Francesco Furlanetto & Francesco Ravazzolo & Samad Sarferaz, 2019. "Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 311-337.
    5. Abbate, Angela & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2016. "Financial shocks and inflation dynamics," Discussion Papers 41/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    7. Sangyup Choi, 2018. "Bank Lending Standards, Loan Demand, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from the Emerging Market Bank Loan Officer Survey," Working papers 2018rwp-126, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    8. Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "Total factor productivity and the propagation of shocks: Empirical evidence and implications for the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 335-346.
    9. Halvorsen, Jørn I. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2014. "How important can bank lending shocks be for economic fluctuations?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 104-123.
    10. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "A bank lending channel or a credit supply shock?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 314-332.
    11. Gregor Bäurle & Rolf Scheufele, 2019. "Credit cycles and real activity: the Swiss case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 1939-1966, June.
    12. Rilind Kabashi & Katerina Suleva, 2016. "Loan Supply Shocks in Macedonia: A Bayesian SVAR Approach with Sign Restrictions," Croatian Economic Survey, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 5-33, June.
    13. Antonio M. Conti & Andrea Nobili, 2019. "Wages and prices in the euro area: exploring the nexus," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 518, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Barnett, Alina & Thomas, Ryland, 2013. "Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?," Bank of England working papers 482, Bank of England.
    15. Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2018. "What Do Vars Tell Us About The Impact Of A Credit Supply Shock?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 625-646, May.
    16. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    17. Jelena Zivanovic, 2019. "What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions?," Staff Working Papers 19-38, Bank of Canada.
    18. Nocera, Andrea & Roma, Moreno, 2017. "House prices and monetary policy in the euro area: evidence from structural VARs," Working Paper Series 2073, European Central Bank.
    19. Fabio Fornari & Livio Stracca, 2012. "What does a financial shock do? First international evidence [Financial intermediaries, financial stability and monetary policy]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(71), pages 407-445.
    20. Duchi, Fabio & Elbourne, Adam, 2016. "Credit supply shocks in the Netherlands," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-71.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sistema Bancario; Choque de Oferta de Crédito; Modelo VAR Bayesiano; Restricciones de Signo; Economía Peruana;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00483. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/depucpe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.