IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/otg/wpaper/1402.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

New Reform Strategies and Welfare participation in Canada:

Author

Listed:
  • Nathan Berg

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago, New Zealand)

  • Todd Gabel

    (Middle Tennessee State University)

Abstract

This paper measures the extent to which declines in Canadian welfare participation were associated with novel and aggressive welfare reforms. Referred to as new reform strategies, these welfare policy variables are: work requirements, diversion, earning exemptions, and time limits. Controlling for province-specific benefit levels, eligibility requirements, GDP growth, labor market conditions and demographics, the data suggest that welfare participation rates were more than one percentage point lower (equivalent to at least a 13% decline in welfare participation) in provinces where new reforms were present. Work requirements with strong sanctions for non-compliance had the sharpest negative associations with participation rates. Adoption of new reform strategies explains at least 10 percent of observed declines in welfare participation from 1994 to 2009, roughly twice as much as cuts to benefit levels and stricter eligibility requirements can explain.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Berg & Todd Gabel, 2014. "New Reform Strategies and Welfare participation in Canada:," Working Papers 1402, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1402
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.otago.ac.nz/economics/news/otago078305.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeffrey Grogger, 2004. "Time Limits and Welfare Use," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(2).
    2. Irvine, Ian & Finnie, Ross & Sceviour, Roger, 2005. "Summary Of: Social Assistance Use in Canada: National and Provincial Trends in Incidence, Entry and Exit," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2005246e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    3. Card, David & Robins, Philip K., 2005. "How important are "entry effects" in financial incentive programs for welfare recipients? Experimental evidence from the Self-Sufficiency Project," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1-2), pages 113-139.
    4. Martin D. Dooley, 1999. "The Evolution of Welfare Participation Among Canadian Lone Mothers From 1973-1991," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 589-612, May.
    5. Barbara L. Wolfe, 2002. "Incentives, challenges, and dilemmas of TANF: A case study," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 577-586.
    6. Lemieux, Thomas & Milligan, Kevin, 2008. "Incentive effects of social assistance: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 807-828, February.
    7. Irvine, Ian & Finnie, Ross & Sceviour, Roger, 2004. "Welfare Dynamics in Canada: The Role of Individual Attributes and Economic-policy Variables," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2004231e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    8. Coelli, Michael B. & Green, David A. & Warburton, William P., 2007. "Breaking the cycle? The effect of education on welfare receipt among children of welfare recipients," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(7-8), pages 1369-1398, August.
    9. Jeffrey Grogger & Steven J. Haider & Jacob Klerman, 2003. "Why Did the Welfare Rolls Fall During the 1990's? The Importance of Entry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 288-292, May.
    10. Garry F. Barrett & Michael I. Cragg, 1998. "An Untold Story: The Characteristics of Welfare Use in British Columbia," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 165-188, February.
    11. David Card & Dean R. Hyslop, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of a Time-Limited Earnings Subsidy for Welfare-Leavers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1723-1770, November.
    12. Michael Shannon, 2009. "Canadian lone mother employment rates, policy change and the US welfare reform literature," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(19), pages 2463-2481.
    13. Hansen, Christian B., 2007. "Asymptotic properties of a robust variance matrix estimator for panel data when T is large," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 597-620, December.
    14. Thomas R. Klassen & Daniel Buchanan, 1997. "Getting it Backward?: Economy and Welfare in Ontario 1985-1996," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 23(3), pages 333-338, September.
    15. Rebecca M. Blank, 2001. "What Causes Public Assistance Caseloads to Grow?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 36(1), pages 85-118.
    16. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    17. Gregory Acs & Katherin Ross Phillips & Sandi Nelson, 2005. "The Road Not Taken? Changes in Welfare Entry During the 1990s," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 86(s1), pages 1060-1079, December.
    18. Pierre Fortin & Pierre-Yves Cremieux, 1998. "The Determinants Of Social Assistance Rates: Evidence From A Panel Of Canadian Provinces, 1997-1996," Travaux en cours CREFE / CREFE Work in progress 2, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    19. Chan, Winnie & Frenette, Marc & Irvine, Ian & Finnie, Ross & Sceviour, Roger, 2005. "Academic Outcomes of Public and Private High School Students: What Lies Behind the Differences? [Social Assistance Use in Canada: National and Provincial Trends in Incidence, Entry and Exit]," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2005245e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    20. Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-434, November.
    21. Rebecca M. Blank, 2002. "Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1105-1166, December.
    22. Ronald D. Kneebone & Katherine G. White, 2009. "Fiscal Retrenchment and Social Assistance in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 35(1), pages 21-40, March.
    23. Michael Charette & Ronald Meng, 1994. "The Determinants of Welfare Participation of Female Heads of Household in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 290-306, May.
    24. Christopher A. Swann, 2005. "Welfare Reform When Recipients Are Forward-Looking," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
    25. Fortin, Bernard & Lacroix, Guy & Drolet, Simon, 2004. "Welfare benefits and the duration of welfare spells: evidence from a natural experiment in Canada," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1495-1520, July.
    26. Louis N. Christofides & Thanasis Stengos & Robert Swidinsky, 1997. "Welfare Participation and Labour Market Behaviour in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 595-621, August.
    27. Allen, Douglas W, 1993. "Welfare and the Family: The Canadian Experience," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 201-223, January.
    28. Michael Baker & Dwayne Benjamin, 1995. "The Receipt of Transfer Payments by Immigrants to Canada," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(4), pages 650-676.
    29. Louis N. Christofides, 2000. "Social assistance and labour supply," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 715-741, August.
    30. Ross Finnie & Ian Irvine, 2008. "The Welfare Enigma: Explaining the Dramatic Decline in Canadians' Use of Social Assistance, 1993-2005," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 267, June.
    31. James P. Ziliak & David N. Figlio & Elizabeth E. Davis & Laura S. Connolly, 2000. "Accounting for the Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Welfare Reform or the Economy?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(3), pages 570-586.
    32. Jeffrey Grogger & Steven J. Haider & Jacob Klerman, 2003. "Why Did the Welfare Rolls Fall During the 1990's? The Importance of Entry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 288-292, May.
    33. Milligan, Kevin & Stabile, Mark, 2007. "The integration of child tax credits and welfare: Evidence from the Canadian National Child Benefit program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 305-326, February.
    34. David C. Ribar, 2005. "Transitions from Welfare and the Employment Prospects of Low-Skill Workers," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(3), pages 514-533, January.
    35. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. B. Cecilia Garcia-Medina & Jean-François Wen, 2018. "Income instability and fiscal progression," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 419-451, May.
    2. Nathan Berg & Todd Gabel, 2013. "Effects of New Welfare Reform Strategies on Welfare Participation: Microdata Estimates from Canada," Working Papers 1304, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nathan Berg & Todd Gabel, 2015. "Did Canadian welfare reform work? The effects of new reform strategies on social assistance participation," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(2), pages 494-528, May.
    2. Nathan Berg & Todd Gabel, 2013. "Effects of New Welfare Reform Strategies on Welfare Participation: Microdata Estimates from Canada," Working Papers 1304, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2013.
    3. Ronald D. Kneebone & Katherine G. White, 2009. "Fiscal Retrenchment and Social Assistance in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 35(1), pages 21-40, March.
    4. Mazzolari, Francesca & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2012. "Time Limits: The Effects on Welfare Use and Other Consumption-Smoothing Mechanisms," IZA Discussion Papers 6993, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Lemieux, Thomas & Milligan, Kevin, 2008. "Incentive effects of social assistance: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 807-828, February.
    6. Haider, Steven J. & Klerman, Jacob Alex, 2005. "Dynamic properties of the welfare caseload," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 629-648, October.
    7. Louis N. Christofides, 2000. "Social assistance and labour supply," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 715-741, August.
    8. Stephen Whelan, 2010. "The Interaction between Income Support Programs," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 407-440, December.
    9. Stephen Whelan, 2010. "The take-up of means-tested income support," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 847-875, December.
    10. Snarr, Hal W. & Burkey, Mark L., 2006. "A Preliminary Investigation of Welfare Migration Induced by Time Limits," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 36(2), pages 1-16.
    11. Hayashi, Masayoshi, 2014. "Forecasting welfare caseloads: The case of the Japanese public assistance program," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 105-114.
    12. Jennifer Stewart & Martin D. Dooley, 1999. "The Duration of Spells on Welfare and Off Welfare Among Lone Mothers in Ontario," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(s1), pages 47-72, November.
    13. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    14. Jeffrey Grogger, 2004. "Welfare transitions in the 1990s: The economy, welfare policy, and the EITC," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 671-695.
    15. Erik Hembre, 2023. "Examining SNAP and TANF caseload trends, responsiveness, and policies during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 262-281, April.
    16. Jeounghee Kim, 2010. "Welfare-to-Work Programs and the Dynamics of TANF Use," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 198-211, June.
    17. Wolfgang Ochel, 2004. "Welfare Time Limits in the United States – Experiences with a New Welfare-to-Work Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 1210, CESifo.
    18. Kwon, Hyeok Chang & Meyer, Daniel R., 2011. "How do economic downturns affect welfare leavers? A comparison of two cohorts," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 588-597, May.
    19. Nezih Guner & John Knowles, 2009. "Why is the rate of single-parenthood lower in Canada than in the U.S.? A dynamic equilibrium analysis of welfare policies," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(1), pages 56-89, February.
    20. Badi H. Baltagi & Yin‐Fang Yen, 2016. "Welfare Reform and Children's Health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 277-291, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Assistance; PRWORA; TANF; Work Requirements; Diversion; Earnings Exemptions; Time Limits; Natural Experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Janet Bryant (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/etotanz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.