What Causes Public Assistance Caseloads to Grow?
AbstractThis paper uses state panel data to investigate changes in public assistance caseloads through the end of the AFDC program in 1996, with particular attention to the rapid increase in caseloads between 1990 and 1994. Previous research has focussed on total caseloads, with attention to economic and policy variables, and does a relatively poor job of explaining this caseload increase. This paper utilizes a much richer set of control variables to investigate the causes of caseload change; it separates AFDC caseloads into three subcomponent programs, separately investigates changes within the AFDC-UP program, AFDC child-only cases, and the remaining "core" AFDC cases (with benefits paid to single mothers and their children); and it explores whether this caseload rise was driven by changes in take-up rates versus in eligibility. The results indicate a large unexplained rise in total AFDC caseloads, even with a very rich specification. A good share of this is due to sharp increases in child-only cases, driven by program and demographic shifts. To a lesser extent, this rise was caused by the expansion of AFDC-UP to all states. These two factors explain half of the overall rise, and all of the unexplained rise in AFDC caseloads. The remaining increase in "core" AFDC cases-with benefits paid to single mothers and their children-is well explained within the model, and is the result of economic, demographic, political and policy changes. These variables appear to have increased eligibility among the core AFDC population in the early 1990s during the economic slowdown. Take-up rates also increased during this time period, but not by a large amount.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research in its series JCPR Working Papers with number 18.
Date of creation: 27 Jun 2000
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Harris Graduate School of Public Policy Studies, 1155 E. 60th Street Chicago, IL 60637
Web page: http://www.jcpr.org/wp/ByDate.html
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- H. W. Hoynes, .
"Local Labor Markets and Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?,"
Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers
1104-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 2000. "Local Labor Markets And Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(3), pages 351-368, August.
- Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 1996. "Local Labor Markets and Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," NBER Working Papers 5643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard P. Barth & Barbara Needell, 1997. "Using Performance Indicators With Child Welfare Policy Makers and Managers," JCPR Working Papers 15, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
- John M. Fitzgerald, 1995. "Local labor markets and local area effects on welfare duration," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 43-67.
- Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 1995.
"Does Welfare Play Any Role in Female Headship Decisions?,"
NBER Working Papers
5149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- H. W. Hoynes, . "Does welfare play any role in female headship decisions?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1078-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Rebecca M. Blank & Patricia Ruggles, 1993. "When Do Women Use AFDC & Food Stamps? The Dynamics of Eligibility vs. Participation," NBER Working Papers 4429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blank, Rebecca M & Card, David E, 1991.
"Recent Trends in Insured and Uninsured Unemployment: Is There an Explanation?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1157-89, November.
- Rebecca M. Blank & David Card, 1989. "Recent Trends in Insured and Uninsured Unemployment: Is There an Explanation?," NBER Working Papers 2871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rebecca Blank & David Card & Whitney Newey, 1988. "Recent Trends in Insured and Uninsured Unemployment: Is There an Explanation?," Working Papers 623, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
- Robert Moffitt, 1987. "Historical Growth in Participation in Aid to Families with Dependent Children: Was There a Structural Shift?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 9(3), pages 347-363, April.
- Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
- J. P. Ziliak & D. N. Figlio & E. E. Davis & L. S. Connolly, . "Accounting for the Decline in AFDC Caseloads: Welfare Reform or Economic Growth?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1151-97, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.