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Macroeconomic conditions, institutional factors and demographic structure: What causes welfare caseloads?

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  • Luis Ayala

    ()

  • César Pérez

    ()

Abstract

Some of the possible determinants of the changes observed in the welfare caseloads have been analysed in this study. Our model attempts to explain variations in the welfare caseloads on the basis of four different factors: macroeconomic conditions, interactions with other income maintenance programmes, changes in the programme’s parameters and changes in the demographic structure. The model was tested by applying different time series techniques. The data employed is of an administrative nature and covered the whole period the Madrid programme has been in operation. The results show that institutional factors carry more weight than macroeconomic factors concerning changes in the welfare caseloads. The results warn against the standardisation of political decisions given that the effects vary considerably among the different demographic groups.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 563-581

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:18:y:2005:i:3:p:563-581

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Related research

Keywords: I30; I38; C22; Welfare; poverty; cointegration;

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References

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  1. Anne E. Winkler, 1991. "The Incentive Effects of Medicaid on Women's Labor Supply," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 26(2), pages 308-337.
  2. Timothy J. Bartik & Randall W. Eberts, 199. "Examining the Effect of Industry Trends and Structure on Welfare Caseloads," Book chapters authored by Upjohn Institute researchers, in: Sheldon H. Danziger (ed.), Economic Conditions and Welfare Reform, chapter 5, pages 119-157 W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  4. Rebecca M. Blank, 1989. "The Effect of Medical Need and Medicaid on AFDC Participation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(1), pages 54-87.
  5. Robert F. Schoeni & Rebecca M. Blank, 2000. "What Has Welfare Reform Accomplished? Impacts on Welfare Participation, Employment, Income, Poverty, and Family Structure," Working Papers 00-02, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  6. Gottschalk, Peter, 1996. "Is the correlation in welfare participation across generations spurious?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-25, December.
  7. Bernard Fortin & Guy Lacroix & Jean-François Thibault, 1999. "The Interaction of UI and Welfare, and the Dynamics of Welfare Participation of Single Parents," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(s1), pages 115-132, November.
  8. Jeff Grogger, 2000. "Time Limits and Welfare Use," NBER Working Papers 7709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. H. W. Hoynes, . "Local Labor Markets and Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1104-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
  10. David N. Figlio & James P. Ziliak, 1999. "Welfare Reform, the Business Cycle, and the Decline in AFDC Caseloads," JCPR Working Papers 77, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  11. Michael P. Keane, 1995. "A new idea for welfare reform," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-28.
  12. Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
  13. Shroder, Mark, 1995. "Games the States Don't Play: Welfare Benefits and the Theory of Fiscal Federalism," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 183-91, February.
  14. Strauss, Robert P., 1977. "Information and participation in a public transfer program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 385-396, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2012. "Forecasting Welfare Caseloads: The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-846, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  2. Ayala, Luis & Rodriguez, Magdalena, 2006. "The latin model of welfare: Do `insertion contracts' reduce long-term dependence?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 799-822, December.
  3. Ayala, Luis & Rodriguez, Magdalena, 2007. "Barriers to employment and welfare dynamics: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 237-257.
  4. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2011. "Does the Employment of Fewer Caseworkers Lead to the Rationing of Caseloads? Evidence from Public Assistance in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-804, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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