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Macroeconomic Conditions, Institutional Factors And Demographic Structure: What Causes Welfare Caseloads?

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  • Luis Ayala

    ()
    (Instituto de Estudios Fiscales)

  • César Pérez

    ()
    (Instituto de Estudios Fiscales)

Abstract

Some of the possible determinants of the changes observed in the welfare caseloads have been analysed in this study. Our model attempts to explain variations in the welfare caseloads on the basis of four different factors: macroeconomic conditions, interactions with other income maintenance programmes, changes in the programme’s parameters and changes in the demographic structure. The model was tested by applying different time series techniques. The data employed is of an administrative nature and covered the whole period the Madrid programme has been in operation. The results show that institutional factors carry more weight than macroeconomic factors concerning changes in the welfare caseloads. The results warn against the standardisation of political decisions given that the effects vary considerably among the different demographic groups.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Estudios Fiscales in its series Working Papers with number 2-03.

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Handle: RePEc:hpe:wpaper:y:2003:i:2

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Keywords: welfare; caseloads; cointegration.;

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References

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  1. Jeffrey Grogger, 2004. "Time Limits and Welfare Use," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(2).
  2. Robert F. Schoeni & Rebecca M. Blank, 2000. "What has Welfare Reform Accomplished? Impacts on Welfare Participation, Employment, Income, Poverty, and Family Structure," NBER Working Papers 7627, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Timothy J. Bartik & Randall W. Eberts, 1999. "Examining the Effect of Industry Trends and Structure on Welfare Caseloads," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research 99-54, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  4. Peter Gottschalk, 1993. "Is The Correlation In Welfare Participation Across Generations Spurious?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 224, Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Strauss, Robert P., 1977. "Information and participation in a public transfer program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 385-396, December.
  6. David N. Figlio & James P. Ziliak, 1999. "Welfare Reform, the Business Cycle, and the Decline in AFDC Caseloads," JCPR Working Papers, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research 77, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  7. Heckman, James J, 1993. "What Has Been Learned about Labor Supply in the Past Twenty Years?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 116-21, May.
  8. Bernard Fortin & Guy Lacroix & Jean-François Thibault, 1999. "The Interaction of UI and Welfare, and the Dynamics of Welfare Participation of Single Parents," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(s1), pages 115-132, November.
  9. H. W. Hoynes, . "Local Labor Markets and Welfare Spells: Do Demand Conditions Matter?," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty 1104-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  12. Michael P. Keane, 1995. "A new idea for welfare reform," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-28.
  13. Rebecca M. Blank, 1989. "The Effect of Medical Need and Medicaid on AFDC Participation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(1), pages 54-87.
  14. Anne E. Winkler, 1991. "The Incentive Effects of Medicaid on Women's Labor Supply," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 26(2), pages 308-337.
  15. Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March.
  16. Shroder, Mark, 1995. "Games the States Don't Play: Welfare Benefits and the Theory of Fiscal Federalism," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 183-91, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ayala, Luis & Rodriguez, Magdalena, 2007. "Barriers to employment and welfare dynamics: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 237-257.
  2. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2012. "Forecasting Welfare Caseloads: The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo CIRJE-F-846, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  3. Ayala, Luis & Rodriguez, Magdalena, 2006. "The latin model of welfare: Do `insertion contracts' reduce long-term dependence?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 799-822, December.
  4. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2011. "Does the Employment of Fewer Caseworkers Lead to the Rationing of Caseloads? Evidence from Public Assistance in Japan," CIRJE F-Series, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo CIRJE-F-804, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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