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Determinants of Lifetime Unemployment - A Micro Data Analysis with Censored Quantile Regressions

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  • Achim Schmillen

    ()
    (Osteuropa-Institut, Regensburg (Institut for East European Studies))

  • Joachim Möller

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB))

Abstract

Building on a large administrative micro data set for the time span 1975 - 2004 we look at lifetime unemployment for West German birth cohorts 1950 to 1954. Descriptive evidence shows a highly uneven distribution of unemployment in West Germany - more than 60% of the individuals in our sample were not unemployed for a single day over the better part of their professional career while almost half of the total amount of unemployment fell upon 5% of the individuals covered. We employ censored quantile regressions to explain the amount of individual lifetime unemployment. Explanatory variables are either characteristics of the individual (like education), or of the job (like the wage) or the employer (like the size of the firm) early in the professional career. A particular emphasis is placed on the importance of the occupation: we find that for men working in a disadvantageous occupation at age 25 ceteris paribus leads to a signi cantly higher amount of lifetime unemployment. Educational attainment or the wage earned at age 25 are also related to the amount of men's lifetime unemployment, amongst others. Some of these variables show very interesting patterns when looking at di erent quantiles. For women results are in general less clear-cut.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and South-East European Studies) in its series Working Papers with number 275.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ost:wpaper:275

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Keywords: Lifetime unemployment; Censored-Quantile Regressions; Occupations specific human capital;

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  1. Kruppe, Thomas & Müller, Eva & Wichert, Laura & Wilke, Ralf A., 2007. "On the Definition of Unemployment and its Implementation in Register Data: The Case of Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-041, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Osikominu, Aderonke & Völter, Robert, 2005. "Imputation rules to improve the education variable in the IAB employment subsample," FDZ Methodenreport 200503_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  3. Iourii Manovskii & Gueorgui Kambourov, 2004. "Occupational Specificity of Human Capital," 2004 Meeting Papers 197, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Adriaan S. Kalwij, 2004. "Unemployment Experiences of Young Men: on the Road to Stable Employment?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(2), pages 205-237, 05.
  5. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521608275, April.
  6. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
  7. Buchinsky, Moshe, 1994. "Changes in the U.S. Wage Structure 1963-1987: Application of Quantile Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 405-58, March.
  8. Yannis Bilias & Roger Koenker, 2001. "Quantile regression for duration data: A reappraisal of the Pennsylvania Reemployment Bonus Experiments," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 199-220.
  9. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
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  11. Hong H. & Chernozhukov V., 2002. "Three-Step Censored Quantile Regression and Extramarital Affairs," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 872-882, September.
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  13. Sebastian Galiani & Hugo A. Hopenhayn, 2001. "Duration and Risk of Unemployment in Argentina," Working Papers 40, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Dec 2001.
  14. Gustavsen, Geir Waehler & Jolliffe, Dean & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2008. "Censored Quantile Regression and Purchases of Ice Cream," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6534, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  15. Lüdemann, Elke & Wilke, Ralf A. & Zhang, Xuan, 2004. "Censored Quantile Regressions and the Length of Unemployment Periods in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-57, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  16. Ludsteck, Johannes & Haupt, Harald, 2007. "An Empirical Test of the Reder Hypothesis," Discussion Papers in Economics 1397, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  17. Jose A. F. Machado & J. M. C. Santos Silva, 2008. "Quantiles for Fractions and Other Mixed Data," Economics Discussion Papers 656, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael Stops, 2011. "Job Matching on non-separated Occupational Labour Markets," ERSA conference papers ersa11p372, European Regional Science Association.
  2. Tisch, Anita & Tophoven, Silke, 2011. "Erwerbseinstieg und bisheriges Erwerbsleben der deutschen Babyboomerkohorten 1959 und 1965 : Vorarbeiten zu einer Kohortenstudie," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201108, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  3. Pradhan, Jaya Prakash, 2010. "R&D strategy of small and medium enterprises in India: Trends and determinants," MPRA Paper 20951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Pradhan, Jaya Prakash, 2011. "Regional heterogeneity and firms’ innovation: the role of regional factors in industrial R&D in India," MPRA Paper 28096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Stops, Michael, 2012. "Job matching across occupational labour markets," IAB Discussion Paper 201227, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  6. Münstermann, Leonard & Schneck, Stefan & Wolter, Hans-Jürgen, 2012. "Die Bedeutung des Kurzarbeitergeldes im Mittelstand," IfM-Materialien 215, Institut für Mittelstandsforschung (IfM) Bonn.

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