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Welfare Changes and Sectoral Adjustments of Asia-Pacific Countries under Alternative Sequencings of Free Trade Agreements

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  • Ken Itakura

    (Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya City University)

  • Hiro Lee

    (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

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    Abstract

    In this paper we compare welfare effects and the extent of sectoral adjustments of the member countries under alternative free trade agreement (FTA) sequencings in the Asia-Pacific region using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. If a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement under one sequencing and an East Asian FTA (EAFTA) under another sequencing will enter into force at the same time, followed by more enlarged FTAs, then a larger number of countries are expected to realize greater welfare gains under the Asia-track sequencing. However, given the uncertainty about the establishment of an Asia-wide FTA in the near future, the TPP-track sequencing appears to be an attractive option for most countries in the Asia-Pacific region. With respect to sectoral adjustments, there seem to be no significant differences among the alternative sequencings.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University in its series OSIPP Discussion Paper with number 12E005.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:12e005

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    Keywords: Sequencing; FTA; Asia-Pacific; CGE model;

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    1. Lee, Hiro & Owen, Robert F. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2009. "Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 240-254, May.
    2. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6642.
    3. Joseph Francis Francois & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2008. "Economic Implications of Deeper Asian Integration," Economics working papers 2008-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    4. Shujiro Urata & Kozo Kiyota, 2003. "The Impacts of an East Asia FTA on Foreign Trade in East Asia," NBER Working Papers 10173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    6. Eric W. Bond, 2008. "Adjustment Costs and the Sequencing of Trade Liberalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 97-111, 01.
    7. Innwon Park, 2006. "East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 547-568, December.
    8. Andrew B. Bernard, 2004. "Exporting and Productivity in the USA," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 343-357, Autumn.
    9. Arvind Panagariya, 2000. "Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 287-331, June.
    10. Francois Joseph F & Wignaraja Ganeshan, 2008. "Economic Implications of Asian Integration," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-48, September.
    11. Peter J. Lloyd & Donald Maclaren, 2004. "Gains and Losses from Regional Trading Agreements: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 445-467, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2014. "TPP, RCEP, and Japan's Agricultural Policy Reforms," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E003, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.

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