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China and the TPP: A Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects Involved

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  • Chunding Li
  • John Whalley

Abstract

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a new negotiation on cross border liberalization of goods and service flows going beyond WTO disciplines and focused on issues such as regulation and border controls. Though the US, Australia and other pacific countries are included, China is notable for its exclusion from the process thus far. This paper uses numerical simulation methods to assess the potential effects of a TPP agreement on China and the other participating countries. We use a numerical five-country global general equilibrium model with trade costs and monetary structure incorporating inside money to allow for impacts on trade imbalances. Trade costs are calculated using a method based on gravity equations. Simulation results reveal that China will be hurt by TPP initiatives, but the negative effects are relatively small given the geographical and commodity composition of China’s trade. Other non-TPP countries will be hurt but member countries will all gain. Japan’s joining TPP would be beneficial to both herself and all other TPP countries, but negative effects on China and other non-TPP countries will increase further. If China takes part in TPP, it will increase China’s and other TPP countries’ gain, but non-TPP countries will be hurt more. As a regional free trade arrangement, TPP effects are different from global free trade effects which will benefit all countries (not just member countries) in the world, and the positive effects of global free trade are stronger than TPP effects.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18090.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18090

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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 593, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Whalley John & Yu Jun & Zhang Shunming, 2012. "Trade Retaliation in a Monetary-Trade Model," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
  3. Dennis Novy, 2011. "Gravity Redux: Measuring International Trade Costs with Panel Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 3616, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Keith Head & John Ries, 2001. "Increasing Returns versus National Product Differentiation as an Explanation for the Pattern of U.S.-Canada Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 858-876, September.
  5. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521319867.
  6. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6642.
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Cited by:
  1. Aslan, Buhara & Mavuş, Merve & Oduncu, Arif, 2014. "The Possible Effects of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership on Chinese Economy," MPRA Paper 53431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2014. "TPP, RCEP, and Japan's Agricultural Policy Reforms," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E003, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.

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