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China-Japan-United States integration amid global rebalancing: A computable general equilibrium analysis

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  • Kawai, Masahiro
  • Zhai, Fan

Abstract

Using a global general equilibrium trade model, this paper assesses the long-term implications of global rebalancing for Asian economies and explores the benefits of China-Japan-United States (US) integration. The analysis suggests that consumption evaporation, a growth slowdown in the US, and the consequent current account correction would force China, Japan, and other East Asian economies to undergo substantial structural adjustments. A combination of domestic reform aimed at boosting service sector productivity and external liberalization aimed at fostering broader economic integration will be critical for East Asian economies to facilitate their economic rebalancing and sustained growth. Our global computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis suggests that China and Japan need to strengthen their economic ties with the US while at the same time bringing other East Asian economies into this integration process.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 688-699

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Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:20:y:2009:i:6:p:688-699

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Related research

Keywords: East Asia Global financial crisis Global imbalances FTA CGE model;

References

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  1. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521319867, April.
  2. Marcel Mérette & Evangelia Papadaki & Jorge Hernandez & Yu Lan, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment Liberalization Between Canada and the USA: A CGE Investigation," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 195-209, June.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
  4. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2004. "Globalization and the Gains from Variety," NBER Working Papers 10314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. James Markusen & Thomas Rutherford & David Tarr, 2005. "Trade and direct investment in producer services and the domestic market for expertise," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 758-777, August.
  7. Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 575-604.
  8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Philippe Martin & Paolo Pesenti, 2008. "Varieties and the Transfer Problem: The Extensive Margin of Current Account Adjustment," RSCAS Working Papers 2008/01, European University Institute.
  9. Joseph Francis Francois & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2008. "Economic Implications of Deeper Asian Integration," Economics working papers 2008-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
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Cited by:
  1. Masahiro Kawai & Fan Zhai, 2010. "Asia’s Post-Global Financial Crisis Adjustment : A Model-Based Dynamic Scenario Analysis," Finance Working Papers 23055, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  2. De, Prabir & Neogi, Chiranjib, 2011. "Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Implications for Trade and Industrial Restructuring in South Asia," ADBI Working Papers 294, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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