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The Impacts of an East Asia FTA on Foreign Trade in East Asia

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  • Shujiro Urata
  • Kozo Kiyota

Abstract

This paper attempts to examine the impact of an East Asia FTA on trade patterns in East Asia by using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. The model used in this analysis is the standard GTAP model and GTAP database developed by Hertel (1997) and his colleagues of Purdue University. Our findings are summarized as follows: First, the impacts of an East Asia FTA on GDP and welfare of member countries are generally positive, while the impacts on non-members are negative. Second and surprisingly, the FTA does not seem to affect much on the patterns of comparative advantage or intra-industry trade. Third, production of the sectors with a comparative advantage increases. Fourth, unexpectedly exports of protected sectors increase, reflecting a shift in incentives from domestic sales to export sales. Finally, an East Asia FTA will promote regionalization in East Asia but it will not necessarily promote regionalization in AFTA.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10173.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Publication status: published as Shujiro Urata & Kozo Kiyota, 2005. "The Impacts of an East Asia Free Trade Agreement on Foreign Trade in East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 14, pages 217-252 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10173

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References

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  1. Drusilla K. Brown & Robert M. Stern, 2000. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0001, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  2. Peter A. Petri, 1993. "The East Asian Trading Bloc: An Analytical History," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism and Rivalry: Japan and the United States in Pacific Asia, pages 21-52 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ballard, Charles L. & Cheong, Inkyo, 1997. "The effects of economic integration in the Pacific Rim: A computational general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 505-524.
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Cited by:
  1. Hiro Lee & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2007. "Regional Integration, Sectoral Adjustments and Natural Groupings in East Asia," OSIPP Discussion Paper 07E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
  2. Innwon Park, 2006. "East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 547-568, December.
  3. Hiro Lee & Robert F. Owen & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2008. "Regional Integration in Asia and Its Effects on the EU and North America," OSIPP Discussion Paper 08E012, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
  4. Park, Innwon, 2008. "Regional Trade Agreements in East Asia: Will They Be Sustainable?," MPRA Paper 5068, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2012. "Welfare Changes and Sectoral Adjustments of Asia-Pacific Countries under Alternative Sequencings of Free Trade Agreements," OSIPP Discussion Paper 12E005, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
  6. Shujiro Urata, 2004. "The Shift from "Market-led" to "Institution-led" Regional Economic Integration in East Asia in the late 1990s," Discussion papers 04012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  7. Paul Vandoren, 2005. "Regional economic integration in South East Asia," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 517-535, December.
  8. ANDO Mitsuyo, 2009. "Impacts of FTAs in East Asia: CGE Simulation Analysis," Discussion papers 09037, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  9. Inkyo CHEONG & Jungran CHO, 2007. "Market Access in FTAs: Assessment Based on Rules of Origin and Agricultural Trade Liberalization," Discussion papers 07016, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  10. Gumilang, Howard & Mukhopadhyay, Kakali & Thomassin, Paul J., 2011. "Economic and environmental impacts of trade liberalization: The case of Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1030-1041, May.
  11. Mun Heng Toh, 2006. "Singapore's Perspectives on the Proliferation of RTAs in East Asia and Beyond," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 259-284.

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