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Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia

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  • Kumagai, Satoru
  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu
  • Isono, Ikumo
  • Keola, Souknilanh
  • Tsubota, Kenmei

Abstract

This paper presents a simulation of the reduction of several components in trade cost for Asia and examines its impact on the economy. Our simulation model based on the new economic geography embraces seven sectors, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and 1,715 regions in 18 countries/economies in Asia, in addition to the two economies of the US and the European Union. The geographical course of transactions among regions is modeled as determined based on firms’ modal choice. The model also includes estimates of some border cost measures such as tariff rates, non-tariff barriers, other border clearance costs, transshipment costs and so on. Our simulation analysis for Asia includes several scenarios involving the improvement/development of routes and the reduction of the above-mentioned border cost. We have shown that the contribution of physical and non-physical infrastructure improvements conducted together is larger than the sum of the contribution by each when conducted independently.

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File URL: http://ir.ide.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/2344/1184/1/ARRIDE_Discussion_No.369_kumagai.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) in its series IDE Discussion Papers with number 369.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Publication status: Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 369. 2012.10
Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper369

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Related research

Keywords: Asia; Transportation; Distribution; Costs; International trade; Geographical simulation; New economic geography; Trade cost;

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References

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  1. Hummels, David, 1999. "Toward a Geography of Trade Costs," GTAP Working Papers 1162, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  2. Richard E. Baldwin, 2008. "Managing The Noodle Bowl: The Fragility Of East Asian Regionalism," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 53(03), pages 449-478.
  3. Forslid, Rikard & Haaland, Jan I. & Ulltveit-Moe, Karen-Helene, 1999. "A U-Shaped Europe? A Simulation Study of Industrial Location," CEPR Discussion Papers 2247, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Michael G. Plummer & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2006. "The Post-Crisis Sequencing of Economic Integration in Asia: Trade as a Complement to a Monetary Future," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 59-85.
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  6. Francois, Joseph & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 2008. "Economic Implications of Deeper Asian Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 6976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Krugman, Paul & Elizondo, Raul Livas, 1996. "Trade policy and the Third World metropolis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 137-150, April.
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  9. Shujiro Urata & Kozo Kiyota, 2005. "The Impacts of an East Asia Free Trade Agreement on Foreign Trade in East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: International Trade in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 14, pages 217-252 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Dirk Stelder, 2005. "Where Do Cities Form? A Geographical Agglomeration Model for Europe," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 657-679.
  11. Francois Joseph F & Wignaraja Ganeshan, 2008. "Economic Implications of Asian Integration," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-48, September.
  12. Jed Kolko, 2010. "Urbanization, Agglomeration, and Coagglomeration of Service Industries," NBER Chapters, in: Agglomeration Economics, pages 151-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
  14. Maarten Bosker & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2010. "Adding geography to the new economic geography: bridging the gap between theory and empirics," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(6), pages 793-823, November.
  15. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kimura, Fukunari & Obashi, Ayako, 2011. "Production Networks in East Asia: What We Know So Far," ADBI Working Papers 320, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  2. Toshihiro KUDO & Satoru KUMAGAI & So UMEZAKI, 2013. "Making Myanmar the Star Growth Performer in ASEAN in the Next Decade: A Proposal of Five Growth Strategies," Working Papers DP-2013-19, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  3. Kudo, Toshihiro & Kumagai, Satoru & Umezaki, So, 2013. "Five growth strategies for Myanmar : re-engagement with the global economy," IDE Discussion Papers 427, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  4. Kudo, Toshihiro & Kumagai, Satoru, 2012. "Two-polar growth strategy in Myanmar : seeking "high" and "balanced" development," IDE Discussion Papers 371, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  5. Ikumo Isono & Satoru Kumagai, 2013. "Long-run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding: Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers DP-2013-08, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  6. Ikumo Isono & Satoru Kumagai & Fukunari Kimura, 2012. "Agglomeration and Dispersion in China and ASEAN: a Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers DP-2012-02, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

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