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How many jobs? A leading indicator model of New Zealand employment

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Author Info

  • Edda Claus
  • Iris Claus

    ()
    (The Treasury)

Abstract

This paper constructs a composite index of leading indicators of New Zealand employment. The choice of variables and their weights in the composite index are determined by their concordance with employment. The composite index is included in an indicator model to forecast quarterly employment growth. The indicator model explains about 67 percent of the quarterly variation in employment, in sample, and correctly predicted the direction of next period employment almost 80 percent of the time, out of sample.

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File URL: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/wp/2002/02-13/twp02-13.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by New Zealand Treasury in its series Treasury Working Paper Series with number 02/13.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/13

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Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
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Related research

Keywords: Composite index of leading indicators; forecasting; employment;

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References

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  1. Auerbach, Alan J, 1982. "The Index of Leading Indicators: "Measurement without Theory," Thirty-Five Years Later," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 589-95, November.
  2. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Edda Claus & Iris Claus, 2007. "Six Leading Indexes Of New Zealand Employment," CAMA Working Papers 2007-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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