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What happens when the Kiwi flies? Sectoral effects of the exchange rate shocks

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Abstract

We estimate a Factor Augmented Vector autoregression (FAVAR) to identify idiosyncratic exchange rate shocks and examine the effects of these shocks on different sectors of the economy. We find that an unexpected shock to the exchange rate has significant effects on the tradable sector of the economy. While this is expected, the non-tradable sectors of the economy are also influenced by shocks to exchange rate. We argue that one important channel for this in influence is the endogenous/cyclical nature of the population dynamics due to permanent and long term migration.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/discussion_papers/2013/dp13_05.pdf
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2013/05.

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Length: 40 p.
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2013/05

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  1. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 71-100, 02.
  2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Sunder-Plassmann, Laura, 2010. "Time-varying dynamics of the real exchange rate. A structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 382, Bank of England.
  3. De Veirman Emmanuel & Dunstan Ashley, 2011. "Time-Varying Returns, Intertemporal Substitution and Cyclical Variation in Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-41, July.
  4. Hahn, Elke, 2007. "The impact of exchange rate shocks on sectoral activity and prices in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0796, European Central Bank.
  5. Artis, Michael & Ehrmann, Michael, 2006. "The exchange rate - A shock-absorber or source of shocks? A study of four open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 874-893, October.
  6. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  7. Alfred A. Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Working Papers 0707, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2007.
  8. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
  9. K. Farrant & G. Peersman, 2005. "Is the exchange rate a shock absorber or a source of shocks? New empirical evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/285, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  10. Richard Fabling & Lynda Sanderson, 2013. "Export performance, invoice currency, and heterogeneous exchange rate pass-through," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/03, New Zealand Treasury.
  11. Brosnan, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 1987. "Modelling the Determinants of Trans-Tasman Migration after World War II," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(183), pages 313-29, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Willy Chetwin & Tim Ng & Daan Steenkamp, 2013. "New Zealand’s short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  2. Miles Parker & Benjamin Wong, 2014. "Exchange rate and commodity price pass‐through in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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