A Discrete Choice Approach to Estimating Armed Conflicts’ Casualties: Revisiting the Numbers of a ‘Truth Commission’
AbstractI discuss the application of capture-recapture methods to estimating the total number of deaths in armed conflicts, and propose an alternative method based on a trivariate discrete choice model. Data come from the ‘Truth and Reconciliation Commission’ (TRC) of Peru, around 25000 deaths, classified by three sources of information, geographical strata, and perpetrator: the State and the Shining Path. In these data many killings have been only documented by one source, which makes a projection of killings unfeasible . TRC consultants Ball et al. (2003) tried to overcome this problem by means of a ‘residual estimation,’ consisting of merging data for different perpetrators. I show theoretically and empirically that this method over-estimates the number of deaths. Using a conditional trivariate Probit I estimate the total number of deaths in around 28000, 60% by the State, 40% by the Shining Path. This number is substantially lower and has a different composition than the around 69000 deaths, 30% by the State, 46% by the Shining Path, and 24% by ‘other perpetrators,’ calculated by Ball et al.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stony Brook University, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number 12-03.
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Armed Conflict; Capture-Recapture; Count Data; Discrete Choice; Human Rights; Maximum-Likelihood Estimation; Poisson Regression.;
Other versions of this item:
- Rendon, Silvio, 2012. "A Discrete Choice Approach to Estimating Armed Conflicts' Casualties: Revisiting the Numbers of a 'Truth Commission'," IZA Discussion Papers 6827, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
- O54 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
- P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-DCM-2012-09-09 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-ECM-2012-09-09 (Econometrics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sonia Laszlo & Franque Grimard, 2010. "Long Term Effects Of Civil Conflict On Women'S Health Outcomes In Peru," Departmental Working Papers 2010-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
- Galdo, Jose C., 2010. "The Long-Run Labor-Market Consequences of Civil War: Evidence from the Shining Path in Peru," IZA Discussion Papers 5028, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Gianmarco Leon, 2010. "Civil Conflict and Human Capital Accumulation: The Long Term Effects of Political Violence in PerÃº," Working Papers id:2505, eSocialSciences.
- Marco Castillo & Ragan Petrie, 2007. "Discrimination in the Warplace: Evidence from a Civil War in Peru," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2007-10, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
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