Too Good to be True? The (In)credibility of the UK Inflation Fan Charts
AbstractThis paper presents some simple methods to estimate the probability that realized inflation will breach a given inflation target range over a specified period, based on the Bank of England?s RPIX inflation forecasting model and the Monetary Policy Committee?s forecasts of the parameters on which this model is built. Illustrative results for plausible target ranges over the period up to 04Q1 indicate that these probabilities are low, if not very low, and strongly suggest that the Bank?s model over-estimates inflation risk.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Industrial Economics Division in its series Occasional Papers with number 11.
Date of creation: 09 2004
Date of revision: 11 Jan 2004
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Inflation; inflation risk; fan charts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-12-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2004-12-12 (Econometrics)
- NEP-MAC-2004-12-12 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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