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Heterogeneity and the Dynamics of Technology Adoption

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Author Info

  • Stephen Ryan

    (MIT and NBER)

  • Catherine Tucker

    (MIT Sloan School of Business)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of heterogeneity and forward-looking expectations in the diffusion of network technologies. Using a detailed dataset on the adoption of a new videoconferencing technology within a firm, we estimate a structural model of technology adoption and communications choice. We allow for heterogeneity in network benefits and adoption costs across agents. We find that ignoring heterogeneity in the interplay between adoption costs and network effects will underpredict the size of the steady-state network size by almost 50 percent. We develop a new “simulated sequence estimator” to measure the extent to which agents seek diversity in their calling behavior, and characterize the patterns of communication as a function of geography, job function, and rank within the firm. We find that agents have significant welfare gains from having access to a diverse network, and that a policy of strategically targeting the right subtype for initial adoption can lead to a faster-growing and larger network than a policy of uncoordinated or diffuse adoption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by NET Institute in its series Working Papers with number 06-26.

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Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision: Oct 2006
Handle: RePEc:net:wpaper:0626

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Web page: http://www.NETinst.org/

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Catherine Tucker, 2011. "Network Stability, Network Externalities and Technology Adoption," NBER Working Papers 17246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Daniel Ackerberg & Xiaohong Chen & Jinyong Hahn, 2011. "A practical asymptotic variance estimator for two-step semiparametric estimators," CeMMAP working papers CWP22/11, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  3. Andrew Sweeting, 2007. "Dynamic Product Repositioning in Differentiated Product Markets: The Case of Format Switching in the Commercial Radio Industry," NBER Working Papers 13522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Maican, Florin G., 2012. "From Boom to Bust and Back Again: A dynamic analysis of IT services," Working Papers in Economics 543, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  5. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, 09.
  6. Andre Veiga & E. Glen Weyl, 2011. "Multidimensional Heterogeneity and Platform Design," Working Papers 11-33, NET Institute, revised Nov 2011.
  7. Michaela Draganska & Sanjog Misra & Victor Aguirregabiria & Pat Bajari & Liran Einav & Paul Ellickson & Dan Horsky & Sridhar Narayanan & Yesim Orhun & Peter Reiss & Katja Seim & Vishal Singh & Raphael, 2008. "Discrete choice models of firms’ strategic decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 399-416, December.
  8. Matttia De' Grassi Di Pianura, 2012. "Subsidising network technology adoption the case of publishers and E-readers," Working Papers hal-00714447, HAL.
  9. Sunil Gupta & Carl F. Mela & Jose M. Vidal-Sanz, 2009. "The value of a "free" customer," Business Economics Working Papers wb092903, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  10. Pinar Karaca-Mandic, 2011. "Role of complementarities in technology adoption: The case of DVD players," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-210, June.
  11. Daniel Ackerberg & Xiaohong Chen & Jinyong Hahn, 2011. "Asymptotic Variance Estimator for Two-Step Semiparametric Estimators," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1803, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Wesley Hartmann & Puneet Manchanda & Harikesh Nair & Matthew Bothner & Peter Dodds & David Godes & Kartik Hosanagar & Catherine Tucker, 2008. "Modeling social interactions: Identification, empirical methods and policy implications," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 287-304, December.

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