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Generational Accounting in Korea

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  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • Young Jun Chun

Abstract

This paper reassesses the long-term fiscal position of Korea using Generational Accounting, modified to reflect the special features of the Korean fiscal situation, such as prospective changes in public pension benefit profiles and social welfare expenditures due to the maturing of public pensions, increasing demand for social welfare expenditures, and population aging. Our findings suggest that unless policy toward existing generations is substantially altered, future generations will face an excessively heavy fiscal burden. For reasonable growth and interest rate assumptions, the difference between 2000 newborns and those born after 2000 ranges from 60% to 120%. We also find that a substantial part of the fiscal burden on the future generations is explained by the long-run budgetary imbalance of public pensions and Medical Insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan J. Auerbach & Young Jun Chun, 2003. "Generational Accounting in Korea," NBER Working Papers 9983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9983
    Note: AG PE
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    5. Auerbach, Alan J. & Chun, Young Jun, 2006. "Generational accounting in Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 234-268, June.
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    9. Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 303-318.
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    13. Gerdtham, Ulf-G. & Sogaard, Jes & Andersson, Fredrik & Jonsson, Bengt, 1992. "An econometric analysis of health care expenditure: A cross-section study of the OECD countries," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-84, May.
    14. Bovenberg, A.L. & Ter Rele, H.J.M., 1999. "Generational accounts for the Netherlands : An update," Other publications TiSEM dd47d729-8d0a-49b2-a132-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Young Jun Chun & Ji Eun Song, 2018. "Retrospective Generational Accounts for Korea," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 34, pages 157-185.
    2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2007. "Comment on "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, pages 372-373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Auerbach, Alan J. & Chun, Young Jun, 2006. "Generational accounting in Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 234-268, June.
    4. Miyazato, Naomi, 2015. "Intergenerational redistribution policies of the 1990s and 2000s in Japan: An analysis using generational accounting," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 1-16.
    5. Janusz Jablonowski & Christoph Mueller & Bernd Raffelhüschen, 2011. "A fiscal outlook for Poland using Generational Accounts," NBP Working Papers 85, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    6. Young Jun Chun, 2006. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for Korean Economy," NBER Working Papers 12265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Miyazato, Naomi, 2020. "Intergenerational Inequality and the Contract Out Policy in Public Health Care," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Jabłonowski, Janusz & Müller, Christoph & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2010. "A fiscal outlook for Poland using generational accounts," FZG Discussion Papers 47, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    9. Alan J. Auerbach & Young Jun Chun & Ilho Yoo, 2005. "The Fiscal Burden of Korean Reunification: A Generational Accounting Approach," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 62-97, March.
    10. Hsieh, Kevin Yu-Ching & Tung, An-Chi, 2016. "Taiwan’s National Pension Program: A remedy for rapid population aging?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 52-66.
    11. Kamil Dybczak, 2006. "Generational Accounts in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2006/2, Czech National Bank.
    12. Narayana, M.R., 2014. "Impact of population ageing on sustainability of India’s current fiscal policies: A Generational Accounting approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 71-83.
    13. Young Jun Chun, 2007. "Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for the Korean Economy," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, pages 339-372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Sanches, Fabio Miessi & Souza, Andre Portela, 2007. "(Un)Sustainability and reform of the social security system in Brasil: A generational Accounting Approach," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 61(3), March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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