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A fiscal outlook for Poland using generational accounts

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  • Jabłonowski, Janusz
  • Müller, Christoph
  • Raffelhüschen, Bernd
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    Abstract

    During the next few decades the populations of most developed countries will grow older and older as a result of the low fertility rates since the 1970s and/or the continuously increasing life expectancy. Poland, one of the biggest countries in Central Europe, will be confronted rather seriously by this development. Generational Accounting which was introduced in the early nineties, can illustrate the effects of this ageing process on a country's fiscal situation. We show that the demographic development produces a major problem for the long term stability of Polish public finances. In particular the healthcare system deserves special attention for policy makers in the medium and long run, whilst the general pension system shall stabilise in the long term. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg in its series FZG Discussion Papers with number 47.

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    Date of creation: 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:fzgdps:47

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    Related research

    Keywords: Generational Accounting; Fiscal sustainability; Fiscal policy; Poland; Pension reform;

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    References

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    1. Buiter, Willem H, 1997. "Generational Accounts, Aggregate Saving and Intergenerational Distribution," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 64(256), pages 605-26, November.
    2. Alan M. Garber & Jonathan Skinner, 2008. "Is American Health Care Uniquely Inefficient?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 27-50, Fall.
    3. Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth : reassessing the threat of ageing," Post-Print halshs-00181605, HAL.
    4. Hans Fehr & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1995. "Generational Accounting in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 5090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Benz, Tobias & Hagist, Christian, 2010. "Der Rücklagenbedarf der Versorgungsausgaben in Baden-Württemberg: Projektion und Reformoptionen," FZG Discussion Papers 42, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg.
    6. Friedrich Breyer & Volker Ulrich, 2000. "Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 220(1), pages 1-17.
    7. Bruce Baker & Daniel Besendorfer & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2002. "Intertemporal State Budgeting," NBER Working Papers 9067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1997. "Reply to Diamond's and Cutler's Reviews of Generational Accounting," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(2), pages 303-14, June.
    9. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
    10. Ulrich Benz & Stefan Fetzer, 2006. "Indicators for Measuring Fiscal Sustainability: A Comparison of the OECD Method and Generational Accounting," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 62(3), pages 367-391, September.
    11. Veronika Deeg & Christian Hagist & Stefan Moog, 2009. "The fiscal outlook in Austria: an evaluation with Generational Accounts," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 475-499, November.
    12. Diamond, Peter, 1996. "Generational Accounts and Generational Balance: An Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 597-607, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska, 2011. "Poland and Germany—a comparison of systems and pension reforms in both countries," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 28.

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