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Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse

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Author Info

  • Friedrich Breyer

    ()
    (Universität Konstanz)

  • Volker Ulrich

    ()
    (Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität Greifswald)

Abstract

It is the purpose of this study to forecast the future development of total expenditures of sickness funds in Germany under the assumption that present institutions remain unchanged. Previous approaches using present age-specific expenditure data are systematically flawed. In contrast, we use regression analysis to isolate the factors responsible for the expenditure increase in the time span 1970-95, viz. demographic ageing, increasing income and a time trend, which is interpreted as the result of medical progress. A projection of the estimated equation into the future yields an increase of the contribution rate to more than 23 per cent in the year 2040.Health care expenditures, contribution rate, regression analysis, ageing, medical progress.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 220 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-17

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:220:y:2000:i:1:p:1-17

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Related research

Keywords: Gesundheitsausgaben; GKV Beitragssatz; Regressionsanalyse; Alterung; medizinischer Fortschritt;

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