IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/diw/diwvjh/71-20-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Eine fiskalische Gesamtbilanz der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Holger Bonin

Abstract

Dieser Beitrag untersucht die fiskalischen Gesamtwirkungen der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland mit Hilfe der demographisch basierten langfristigen Budgetmethode der Generationenbilanzierung. Zunächst wird für den Anfangsbestand der Einheimischen und Zuwanderer der Gegenwartswert aller individuell über den Lebenszyklus geleisteten Steuern und empfangenen Transfers abgeschätzt. Auf dieser Grundlage wird unter Berücksichtigung der marginalen Bereitstellungskosten öffentlicher Güter gezeigt, dass Einwanderung die öffentlichen Haushalte intertemporal direkt entlastet, wenn künftige Zuwanderer die fiskalische Leistungsfähigkeit der ansässigen Bevölkerung zügig erreichen. Darüber hinaus entstehen indirekte Vorteile für die einheimische Bevölkerung, weil die gegenwärtige Finanzpolitik langfristig nicht tragfähig ist. Eine Verbreiterung der Besteuerungsbasis durch Zuwanderung kann die zum Erhalt der staatlichen Zahlungsfähigkeit erforderliche Erhöhung der individuellen Finanzierungsbeiträge zum Staatshaushalt spürbar reduzieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Bonin, 2002. "Eine fiskalische Gesamtbilanz der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 215-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:71-20-4
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.71.2.215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3790/vjh.71.2.215
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3790/vjh.71.2.215?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diamond, Peter, 1996. "Generational Accounts and Generational Balance: An Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 597-607, December.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Jorge Braga de Macedo & Jost Braz & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Jan Walliser, 1999. "Generational Accounting in Portugal," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 471-488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Diamond, Peter, 1996. "Generational Accounts and Generational Balance: An Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(4), pages 597-607, December.
    4. Regina T. Riphahn, 2003. "Cohort effects in the educational attainment of second generation immigrants in Germany: An analysis of census data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 711-737, November.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fertig, Michael & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2001. "First- and Second-Generation Migrants in Germany - What Do We Know and What Do People Think," IZA Discussion Papers 286, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Torun Österberg & Björn Gustafsson, 2001. "Immigrants and the public sector budget - accounting exercises for Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 689-708.
    8. Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 303-318.
    9. Schmidt, Christoph M., 1997. "Immigrant performance in Germany: Labor earnings of ethnic German migrants and foreign guest-workers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(Supplemen), pages 379-397.
    10. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU enlargement and labour-force migration: Proposals for a gradual convergence of labour markets," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
    11. M. Dolores Collado & IÒigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2004. "Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 11(3), pages 335-353, May.
    12. Rafflhuschen, B. & Risa, A.E., 1997. "Generational Accounting and intergenerational Welfare," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 164, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    13. John P. Haisken-DeNew & Felix Büchel & Gert G. Wagner, 1997. "Assimilation and Other Determinants of School Attainment in Germany: Do Immigrant Children Perform as Well as Germans?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 66(1), pages 169-179.
    14. Wolfgang Seifert, 1997. "Integration of 'Old' and 'New' Immigrant Groups in Germany," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 66(1), pages 159-168.
    15. Bernd Raffelhuschen & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the Globe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 161-166, May.
    16. Christian Dustmann, 1996. "The social assimilation of immigrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 37-54, February.
    17. Ather H. Akbari, 1989. "The Benefits of Immigrants to Canada: Evidence on Tax and Public Services," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(4), pages 424-435, December.
    18. repec:ilo:ilowps:338944 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
    20. Philip Oreopoulos & Alan J. Auerbach, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May.
    21. Dustmann, C, 1993. "Earnings Adjustment of Temporary Migrants," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 153-168, May.
    22. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number auer99-1, March.
    23. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, 2000. "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 57(1), pages 1-21, September.
    24. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December.
    25. Fertig, Michael, 2002. "Evaluating Immigration Policy Potentials and Limitations," IZA Discussion Papers 437, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michele Battisti & Gabriel Felbermayr & Giovanni Peri & Panu Poutvaara, 2018. "Immigration, Search and Redistribution: A Quantitative Assessment of Native Welfare," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1137-1188.
    2. Thomas K. Bauer, 2002. "Migration, Sozialstaat und Zuwanderungspolitik," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 249-271.
    3. Brücker, Herbert & Ringer, Sebastian, 2008. "Ausländer in Deutschland: Vergleichsweise schlecht qualifiziert," IAB-Kurzbericht 200801, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2013. "Are immigrants a burden for the state budget? Review paper," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/79, European University Institute.
    5. Margret Wintermantel & Matthias Kleiner & Jürgen Mlynek & Leonore Sauer & Herbert Brücker, 2008. ""Brain drain" - does Germany offer too few opportunities for top researchers?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(04), pages 03-18, February.
    6. Kaczmarczyk, Pawel, 2015. "Burden or Relief? Fiscal Impacts of Recent Ukrainian Migration to Poland," IZA Discussion Papers 8779, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Krieger, Tim, 2005. "Renten und Zuwanderung: Ein Überblick über neue Ergebnisse der Forschung," Arbeitspapiere der Nordakademie 2005-04, Nordakademie - Hochschule der Wirtschaft.
    8. Hinte, Holger & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2014. "Does the Calculation Hold? The Fiscal Balance of Migration to Denmark and Germany," IZA Policy Papers 87, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Marcus Dittrich & Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Henschel & Gunther Markwardt & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Marcel Thum, 2004. "Demographische Entwicklung im Freistaat Sachsen : Analyse und Strategien zum Bevölkerungsrückgang auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ; Gutachten im Auftrag der Sächsischen Staatskanzlei," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36, July.
    10. Biavaschi, Costanza & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2013. "Costs and Benefits of Labour Mobility between the EU and the Eastern Partnership Countries: Country Study on Germany," IZA Policy Papers 72, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bonin, Holger, 2001. "Fiskalische Effekte der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland - Eine Generationenbilanz," IZA Discussion Papers 305, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Hinte, Holger & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2014. "Does the Calculation Hold? The Fiscal Balance of Migration to Denmark and Germany," IZA Policy Papers 87, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2013. "Are immigrants a burden for the state budget? Review paper," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/79, European University Institute.
    4. repec:zbw:rwidps:0020 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Schmidt, Christoph M. & Haisken-DeNew, John P. & Bauer, Thomas K., 2004. "International Labor Migration, Economic Growth and Labor Markets - The Current State of Affairs," RWI Discussion Papers 20, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    6. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2002. "Generational policy," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 27, pages 1873-1932, Elsevier.
    7. John P Haisken-DeNew & Christoph M. Schmidt & Thomas Bauer, 2004. "International Labor Migration, Economic Growth and Labor Markets – The Current State of Affairs," RWI Discussion Papers 0020, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    8. Gemma Abío & Eduard Berenguer & Holger Bonin & Joan Gil & Concepció Patxot, 2003. "Is the deficit under control? A generational accounting perspective on fiscal policy and labour market trends in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(2), pages 309-341, May.
    9. Thomas K. Bauer, 2002. "Migration, Sozialstaat und Zuwanderungspolitik," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 249-271.
    10. Pekkala, Sari, 2005. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey," Discussion Papers 362, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Bernd Raffelhuschen & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the Globe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 161-166, May.
    12. Gemma Abio Roig & Joan Gil Trasfi & Concepcion Patxot Cardoner, 2005. "La Ley de Estabilidad Presupuestaria en el largo plazo: efecto del ciclo demografico," Working Papers in Economics 126, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    13. Karin Mayr, 2004. "The fiscal impact of immigrants in Austria--a generational accounting analysis," Economics working papers 2004-09, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    14. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-32, Spring.
    15. Victoria Chorny & Rob Euwals & Kees Folmer, 2007. "Immigration policy and welfare state design; a qualitative approach to explore the interaction," CPB Document 153, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    16. SHIMASAWA Manabu & OGURO Kazumasa, 2016. "Will Abenomics Save Future Generations?," Discussion papers 16100, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    17. Volker Börstinghaus & Georg Hirte, 2002. "Generational Accounting versus Computable General Equilibrium," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 58(3), pages 227-243, July.
    18. A. Bovenberg & Harry Rele, 2000. "Generational Accounts for The Netherlands: An Update," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 7(4), pages 411-430, August.
    19. Alan J. Auerbach & Young Jun Chun & Ilho Yoo, 2005. "The Fiscal Burden of Korean Reunification: A Generational Accounting Approach," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 62-97, March.
    20. Casey Mulligan & Tomas Philipson, "undated". "Merit Motives and Government Intervention: Public Finance in Reverse," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 2000-03, Chicago - Population Research Center.
    21. Murat G. Kirdar, 2012. "Estimating The Impact Of Immigrants On The Host Country Social Security System When Return Migration Is An Endogenous Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 453-486, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:71-20-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.