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A fiscal outlook for Poland using Generational Accounts

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  • Janusz Jablonowski

    ()
    (Narodowy Bank Polski)

  • Christoph Mueller

    (Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg)

  • Bernd Raffelhüschen

    (Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg)

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    Abstract

    During the next few decades the populations of most developed countries will grow older and older as a result of the low fertility rates since the 1970s and/or the continuously increasing life expectancy. Poland, one of the biggest countries in Central Europe, will be confronted rather seriously by this development. Generational Accounting which was introduced in the early nineties, can illustrate the effects of this ageing process on a country’s fiscal situation. We show that the demographic development produces a major problem for the long term stability of Polish public finances. In particular the healthcare system deserves special attention for policy makers in the medium and long run, whilst the general pension system shall stabilise in the long term.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 85.

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    Length: 107
    Date of creation: 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:85

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    Related research

    Keywords: Generational Accounting; Fiscal sustainability; Fiscal policy; Poland; Pension reform;

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    References

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    1. Bruce Baker & Daniel Besendorfer & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2002. "Intertemporal State Budgeting," NBER Working Papers 9067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Friedrich Breyer & Volker Ulrich, 2000. "Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 220(1), pages 1-17.
    3. Brigitte Dormont & Michel Grignon & Hélène Huber, 2006. "Health expenditure growth: reassessing the threat of ageing," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(9), pages 947-963.
    4. Hans Fehr & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1995. "Generational Accounting in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 5090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Diamond, Peter, 1996. "Generational Accounts and Generational Balance: An Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 597-607, December.
    6. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Stefan Felder, 2006. "Lebenserwartung, medizinischer Fortschritt und Gesundheitsausgaben: Theorie und Empirie," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(s1), pages 49-73, 05.
    8. Rafflhuschen, B. & Risa, A.E., 1997. "Generational Accounting and intergenerational Welfare," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 164, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    9. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1997. "Reply to Diamond's and Cutler's Reviews of Generational Accounting," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(2), pages 303-14, June.
    10. Robert Haveman, 1994. "Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 95-111, Winter.
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