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Fiskalische Effekte der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland - Eine Generationenbilanz

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  • Bonin, Holger

    ()
    (ZEW Mannheim)

Abstract

Der Beitrag untersucht die Bedeutung von Zuwanderung für die langfristige Entwicklung öffentlicher Haushalte in Deutschland. Mit Hilfe der Generationenbilanzierung werden die Nettosteuerzahlungen von Zuwanderern von ihrer Ankunft im Aufnahmeland bis an ihr Lebensende geschätzt. Wenn künftige Einwanderer der heute in Deutschland lebenden Ausländerbevölkerung ähneln, ist der Gesamtbeitrag der Zuwanderung zu den öffentlichen Haushalten eindeutig positiv. Immigration wäre daher ein geeignetes Instrument, in einer alternden Gesellschaft steigende Steuerlasten für die einheimische Bevölkerung zu verringern. Eine aktive Einwanderungspolitik, die hoch Qualifizierte selektiert und die Integration der Zuwanderer in den Arbeitsmarkt unterstützt, vergrößert die positiven Wirkungen auf die Steuerlast der einheimischen Bevölkerung. Allerdings kann selbst hohe Zuwanderung gut ausgebildeter Erwerbspersonen die von einer alternden Bevölkerung ausgelösten generationalen Umverteilungsprozesse nur teilweise aufheben. The paper employs generational accounting to analyze the intertemporal fiscal impact of mmigration to Germany. Generational accounts for native and alien residents are distinguished to assess what might be the lifetime net tax payments of prospective immigrants after arrival. Supposed future immigrants resemble the current migrant population in Germany, the fiscal externality on the incumbent population due to immigration is found positive and large. Further, immigration probably reduces generational redistribution through demographic aging even if migrants assimilate slowly fiscally. However, while selective immigration policy could raise the average migrant surplus to the intertemporal government budget, it cannot restore fiscal sustainability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 305.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2001
Date of revision:
Publication status: published in: Applied Economics Quarterly Supplement, 2001, 52, 127-156
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp305

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Keywords: fiscal sustainability; migration; Generational accounting; Germany;

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References

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  1. John P. Haisken-DeNew & Felix Büchel & Gert G. Wagner, 1996. "Assimilation and Other Determinants of School Attainment in Germany: do Immigrant Children Perform as Well as Germans?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 141, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, 2000. "Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 57(1), pages 1-, September.
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  6. Alan J. Auerbach & Jorge Braga de Macedo & Jost Braz & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Jan Walliser, 1999. "Generational Accounting in Portugal," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 471-488 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1997. "The Value of Children and Immigrants in a Pay-As-You-Go Pension System: A Proposal For a Partial Transition to a Funded System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Auerbach, Alan J & Gokhale, Jagadeesh & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. " Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(2), pages 303-18.
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Cited by:
  1. Tim Krieger, 2002. "Chancen und Risiken für die nationalen Rentensysteme durch internationale Arbeitsmobilität," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 71(2), pages 199-214.
  2. Ugur, Mehmet, 2007. "Migration without borders: the ethics, economics and governance of free movement," MPRA Paper 26007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2010.
  3. Richter, Wolfram F., 2002. "Social Security and Taxation of Labour Subject to Subsidiarity and Freedom of Movement," IZA Discussion Papers 490, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Krieger, Tim, 2005. "Renten und Zuwanderung: Ein Überblick über neue Ergebnisse der Forschung," Arbeitspapiere der Nordakademie 2005-04, Nordakademie - Hochschule der Wirtschaft.
  5. Bernard M. Hoekman & Togan Sübidey, 2005. "Turkey : Economic Reform and Accession to the European Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7494, October.
  6. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr, 2011. "Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Christoph M. Schmidt & Michael Fertig, 2002. "Mobility within Europe – The Attitudes of European Youngsters," RWI Discussion Papers 0001, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
  8. Flam, Harry, 2003. "Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession," Seminar Papers 718, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  9. Hagist, Christian & Moog, Stefan & Raffelhüschen, Bernd, 2008. "Ehrbarer Staat? Die Generationenbilanz - Update 2008: Migration und Nachhaltigkeit," FZG Discussion Papers 30, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG), University of Freiburg.
  10. John P Haisken-DeNew & Christoph M. Schmidt & Thomas Bauer, 2004. "International Labor Migration, Economic Growth and Labor Markets – The Current State of Affairs," RWI Discussion Papers 0020, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.

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