Population Aging, Fiscal Policies, and National Saving: Predictions for Korean Economy
AbstractThis paper evaluates the effects of population aging and fiscal policies on national saving in Korean situation. For the prediction of the national savings rate of Korea for the next several decades, we employ a life-cycle model, which incorporates the generational accounting approach needed to assess the distribution of fiscal burden across generations. We found that the rapid population aging and long-term budgetary imbalance will substantially lower the national savings rate in Korea. A sensitivity analysis based on an alternative model, an altruistic family model, shows that these predictions are robust to the specification of altruism among generations. In addition, the estimation results of consumption functions with respect to various kinds of wealth suggest that the annuitization of wealth due to maturing of public pensions and introduction of reverse annuity mortgage is likely to further decrease the savings rate in the future.
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Date of creation: May 2006
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
- H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-06-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2006-06-10 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2006-06-10 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2006-06-10 (Public Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2006-06-10 (South East Asia)
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