The Core-Periphery Model with Forward-Looking Expectations
AbstractThe 'core-periphery model' is vitiated by its assumption of static expectations. That is, migration (inter-regional or intersectoral) is the key to agglomeration, but migrants base their decision on current wage differences alone--even though migration predictably alters wages and workers are (implicitly) infinitely lived. The assumption was necessary for analytic tractability. The model can have multiple stable equilibria, so allowing forward-looking expectations would have forced consideration of the very difficult perhaps even intractable issues of global stability in non-linear dynamic systems. This paper's main contribution is to present a set of solution techniques partly analytic and partly numerical that allow us to consider forward-looking expectations. These techniques reveal a startling result. If quadratic migration costs are sufficiently high, allowing forward-looking behaviour has no impact on the main results, so static expectations are truly an assumption of convenience. If migration costs are lower, however, forward-looking behaviour creates history-vs-expectations considerations. In this case self-fulfilling prophecy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6921.
Date of creation: Feb 1999
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Baldwin, Richard, 1999. "The Core-Periphery Model With Forward-Looking Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- F1 - International Economics - - Trade
- F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1990. "Integration and the Competitiveness of Peripheral Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 363, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, October.
- Puga, Diego, 1999.
"The rise and fall of regional inequalities,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 303-334, February.
- Krugman, Paul, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-67, May.
- Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990.
"Increasing Returns, Industrialization and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium,"
878, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1991. "Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 617-50, May.
- Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995.
"Globalization and the Inequality of Nations,"
NBER Working Papers
5098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," Working Paper Series 430, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
- Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1994. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," CEPR Discussion Papers 1015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fukao, Kyoji & Benabou, Roland, 1993. "History versus Expectations: A Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(2), pages 535-42, May.
- Beavis,Brian & Dobbs,Ian, 1990. "Optimisation and Stability Theory for Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521336055, November.
- Fujita, Masahisa & Thisse, Jacques-François, 1996.
"Economics of Agglomeration,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1344, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fujita, Masahisa & Thisse, Jacques-Francois, 1996. "Economics of Agglomeration," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 339-378, December.
- Krugman, Paul, 1991.
"Increasing Returns and Economic Geography,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June.
- Venables, Anthony J, 1987. "Trade and Trade Policy with Differentiated Products: A Chamberlinian-Ricardian Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 700-717, September.
- Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, January.
- Lapo Valentina, 2003. "Spatial distribution of investment in Russia: the effect of agglomeration," EERC Working Paper Series 01-087e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
- Marco Maffezzoli & Federico Trionfetti, . "Approximation Methods: an Application to the Core-Periphery Model," Working Papers 219, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Giovanni Peri & Luisa Lambertini, . "Can Taxes Drive Agglomeration while approaching the Global Economy?," Working Papers 157, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Forslid, Rikard & Midelfart, Karen Helene, 2005. "Internationalisation, industrial policy and clusters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 197-213, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.