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Order from Chaos? The Effects of Early Labor Market Experiences on Adult Labor Market Outcomes

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  • Rosella Gardecki
  • David Neumark

Abstract

This paper examines the consequences of initial periods of churning,' floundering about,' or mobility' in the labor market to help assess whether faster transitions to stable employment relationships--such as those envisioned by advocates of school-to-work programs--would be likely to lead to better adult labor market outcomes. Our interpretation of the results is that there is at best modest evidence linking early job market stability to better labor market outcomes. We find that adult labor market outcomes (defined as of the late 20s or early to mid-30s) are for the most part unrelated to early labor market experiences for both men and women. This evidence does not provide a compelling case for efforts to explicitly target the school-to-work transition, insofar as this implies changing the structure of youth labor markets so that workers become more firmly attached to employers, industries, or occupations at

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5899.

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Date of creation: Jan 1997
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Publication status: published as Industrial and Labor Relations Review, Vol. 51, no. 2 (January 1998): 299- 322.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5899

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  1. David T. Ellwood, 1982. "Teenage Unemployment: Permanent Scars or Temporary Blemishes?," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 349-390 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
  3. Barron, John M & Black, Dan A & Loewenstein, Mark A, 1989. "Job Matching and On-the-Job Training," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, January.
  4. David G. Blanchflower & Lisa M. Lynch, 1994. "Training at Work: A Comparison of U.S. and British Youths," NBER Chapters, in: Training and the Private Sector, pages 233-260 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. John Bishop, 1994. "The Impact of Previous Training on Productivity and Wages," NBER Chapters, in: Training and the Private Sector, pages 161-200 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Charles C. Brown, 1982. "Dead-end Jobs and Youth Unemployment," NBER Chapters, in: The Youth Labor Market Problem: Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, pages 427-452 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Audrey Light & Kathleen McGarry, 1998. "Job Change Patterns And The Wages Of Young Men," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 276-286, May.
  8. Lisa M. Lynch, 1992. "Differential Effects of Post-School Training on Early Career Mobility," NBER Working Papers 4034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Griliches, Zvi, 1977. "Estimating the Returns to Schooling: Some Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, January.
  10. James Heckman, 1993. "Assessing Clinton's Program on Job Training, Workfare, and Education in the Workplace," NBER Working Papers 4428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Taehyun Ahn, 2011. "Racial differences in self-employment exits," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 169-186, February.
  2. Stefan Bender & Till von Wachter, 2006. "In the Right Place at the Wrong Time: The Role of Firms and Luck in Young Workers' Careers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1679-1705, December.
  3. Bruce Chapman & Matthew Gray, 2004. "Youth Unemployment: Aggregate Incidence and Consequences for Individuals," Labor and Demography 0408001, EconWPA.
  4. Raaum , Oddbjørn & Røed, Knut, 2003. "Do Business Cycle Conditions at the Time of Labour Market Entry Affect Future Unemployment?," Memorandum 12/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  5. Neumark, David & Wascher, William, 2001. "Minimum Wages and Training Revisited," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(3), pages 563-95, July.
  6. Tricia Lynn Gladden & Christopher R. Taber, 1999. "Wage Progression Among Less Skilled Workers," JCPR Working Papers 72, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  7. Oreopoulos, Philip & Wachter, Till von & Heisz, Andrew, 2008. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession: Hysteresis and Heterogeneity in the Market for College Graduates," IZA Discussion Papers 3578, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
  9. Beartice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2009. "To Shape the Future: How Labor Market Entry Conditions Affect Individuals’s Long-Run Wage Profiles," NRN working papers 2009-29, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  10. Bratberg, Espen & Nilsen, Øivind Anti, 1998. "Transition from School to Work: Search Time and Job Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 27, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Umkehrer, Matthias, 2013. "Youth Employment Instability, True State Dependence and Adult Wage Inequality," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80014, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  12. Simon Burgess & Carol Propper & Hedley Rees & Arran Shearer, 1999. "The class of '81: the effects of early-career unemployment on subsequent unemployment experiences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6478, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  13. Brunner, Beatrice & Kuhn, Andreas, 2009. "To Shape the Future: How Labor Market Entry Conditions Affect Individuals' Long-Run Wage Profiles," IZA Discussion Papers 4601, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Sarah Bridges & Louise Fox & Alessio Gaggero & Trudy Owens, . "Labour Market Entry and Earnings: Evidence from Tanzanian Retrospective Data," Discussion Papers 13/05, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
  15. Wozniak, Abigail, 2006. "Educational Differences in the Migration Responses of Young Workers to Local Labor Market Conditions," IZA Discussion Papers 1954, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2014. "The impact of labor market entry conditions on initial job assignment and wages," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 705-738, July.
  17. David Neumark, 1998. "Youth Labor Markets in the U.S.: Shopping Around vs. Staying Put," NBER Working Papers 6581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Gaston, Noel & Kishi, Tomoko, 2007. "Part-time workers doing full-time work in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 435-454, December.
  19. Beatrice Brunner & Andreas Kuhn, 2009. "To shape the future: How labor market entry conditions affect individuals' long-run wage profiles," IEW - Working Papers 457, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  20. Bosley, Stacie A., 2004. "Dead-End Jobs Or Stepping Stones? The Long-Run Consequences Of Early Industry And Occupation," Working Papers 14301, University of Minnesota, The Food Industry Center.

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