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Stochastic Equilibrium and Exchange Rate Determination in a Small Open Economy with Risk Averse Optimizing Agents

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  • Earl L. Grinols
  • Stephen J. Turnovsky

Abstract

This paper constructs a stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy consisting of risk averse optimizing agents. The stochastic processes describing the rate of monetary growth, government expenditure, private production, and the foreign price level are taken to be exogenous, determining all asset risks and returns, and the equilibrium stochastic processes describing the domestic inflation rate and the exchange rate. The model is used to examine a number of issues. These include: (i) the effects of the means and variances of policy shocks on the equilibrium; (ii) the determinants of the foreign exchange risk premium; (iii) the relationship between net export instability and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Earl L. Grinols & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1991. "Stochastic Equilibrium and Exchange Rate Determination in a Small Open Economy with Risk Averse Optimizing Agents," NBER Working Papers 3651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3651
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
    2. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805, Elsevier.
    3. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1985. "Domestic and foreign disturbances in an optimizing model of exchange-rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 151-171, March.
    4. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1979. "The diversifiability of exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 379-393, August.
    6. Stockman, Alan C. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1987. "Capital flows, investment, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 171-201, March.
    7. Laidler, David E, 1977. "Expectations and the Behaviour of Prices and Output under Flexible Exchange Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(176), pages 327-335, November.
    8. Floyd, John E, 1978. " The Asset Market Theory of the Exchange Rate: A Comment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 80(1), pages 100-103.
    9. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    10. Peter B. Kenen & Constantine S. Voivodas, 1972. "Export Instability And Economic Growth," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 791-804, November.
    11. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March.
    12. Brock, Philip L., 1991. "Export instability and the economic performance of developing countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 129-147.
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    Cited by:

    1. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Bianconi, Marcelo, 1992. "The International Transmission of Tax Policies in a Dynamic World Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 49-72, November.
    2. Antoine Magnier, 1992. "Théorie des zones cibles et fonctionnement du SME," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 87-113.
    3. Bianconi, Marcelo, 1995. "Fiscal policy in a simple two-country dynamic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 395-419.

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