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Stochastic Equilibrium and Exchange Rate Determination in a Small Open Economy with Risk Averse Optimizing Agents

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  • Earl L. Grinols
  • Stephen J. Turnovsky

Abstract

This paper constructs a stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy consisting of risk averse optimizing agents. The stochastic processes describing the rate of monetary growth, government expenditure, private production, and the foreign price level are taken to be exogenous, determining all asset risks and returns, and the equilibrium stochastic processes describing the domestic inflation rate and the exchange rate. The model is used to examine a number of issues. These include: (i) the effects of the means and variances of policy shocks on the equilibrium; (ii) the determinants of the foreign exchange risk premium; (iii) the relationship between net export instability and economic growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3651.

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Date of creation: Mar 1991
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Publication status: published as Grinols, Earl L. and Stephen J. Turnovsky. "Exchange Rate Determination And Asset Prices In A Stochastic Small Open Economy," Journal of International Economics, 1994, v36(1/2), 75-97.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3651

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References

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  1. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805 Elsevier.
  2. Floyd, John E, 1978. " The Asset Market Theory of the Exchange Rate: A Comment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 80(1), pages 100-103.
  3. Brock, Philip L., 1991. "Export instability and the economic performance of developing countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 129-147.
  4. Stockman, Alan C. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1987. "Capital flows, investment, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 171-201, March.
  5. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1979. "The diversifiability of exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 379-393, August.
  7. Kenen, Peter B & Voivodas, Constantine S, 1972. "Export Instability and Economic Growth," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 791-804.
  8. Charles Engel, 1990. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Research Working Paper 90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  10. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1985. "Domestic and Foreign Disturbances in an Optimizing Model of Exchange- Rate Determination," NBER Working Papers 1407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Laidler, David E, 1977. "Expectations and the Behaviour of Prices and Output under Flexible Exchange Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(176), pages 327-35, November.
  12. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Marcelo Bianconi, 1992. "The International Transmission of Tax Policies in a Dynamic World Economy," NBER Working Papers 4086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bianconi, Marcelo, 1995. "Fiscal policy in a simple two-country dynamic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 395-419.

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