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The Forward- and the Equity-Premium Puzzles: Two Symptoms of the Same Illness?

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  • Costa, Carlos Eugênio da
  • Issler, João Victor
  • Matos, Paulo F.

Abstract

We build a pricing kernel using only US domestic assets data and checkwhether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumptionbased models. By interpreting our stochastic discount factor as the projection ofa pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicatethat a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a longway toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets. We address predictabilityissues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instrumentsthat are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associatedwith Euler equations, and; ii) by pricing Lustig and Verdelhan (2007)'s foreigncurrency portfolios. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explainforeign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S.domestic assets behavior.

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Paper provided by FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) with number 697.

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Date of creation: 12 Aug 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:697

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  1. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  2. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2000. "Coincident and leading indicators of the stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 87-111, May.
  3. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  4. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, . "Interpreting the Forward Premium Anomoly," GSIA Working Papers 15, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  5. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Viallet, Claude J., 1992. "Equity risk premia and the pricing of foreign exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 199-219, November.
  6. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "Investing in Foreign Currency is like Betting on your Intertemporal Marginal Rate of Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 644-655, 04-05.
  7. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
  8. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, 07.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrei G. Simonassi, 2006. "Estimando A Taxa De Retorno Livre De Risco No Brasil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 180, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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