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Interpreting the Forward Premium Anomaly

Author

Listed:
  • David K. Backus
  • Silverio Foresi
  • Chris I. Telmer

Abstract

One of the central issues in international finance concerns the forward premium anomaly: changes in spot exchange rates are inversely related to the premium of forward rates over spot rates. The authors construct a numerical example of a theoretical economy with this property and discuss its potential as an explanation of the anomaly.

Suggested Citation

  • David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris I. Telmer, 1995. "Interpreting the Forward Premium Anomaly," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(s1), pages 108-119, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:28:y:1995:i:s1:p:108-119
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    Cited by:

    1. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    2. Matos, Paulo Rogério Faustino & Costa, Carlos Eugênio da & Issler, João Victor, 2007. "The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 649, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    3. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2002. "Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 387-411, December.
    4. Peiris, M.Udara & Polemarchakis, Herakles, 2015. "Quantitative Easing in an Open Economy : Prices, Exchange Rates and Risk Premia," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 09, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    5. Heipertz, Jonas & Mihov, Ilian & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2022. "Managing macroeconomic fluctuations with flexible exchange rate targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 851-878.
    7. Inci, Ahmet Can & Lu, Biao, 2007. "Currency futures-spot basis and risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 180-197, April.
    8. Inci, Ahmet Can & Lu, Biao, 2004. "Exchange rates and interest rates: can term structure models explain currency movements?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1595-1624, June.
    9. McMahon, Michael & Peiris, M. Udara & Polemarchakis, Herakles, 2018. "Perils of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 92-114.
    10. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2016. "Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 13-28.
    11. Kumar, Satish & Trück, Stefan, 2014. "Unbiasedness and risk premiums in the Indian currency futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 13-32.
    12. Kumar, Satish, 2019. "Does risk premium help uncover the uncovered interest parity failure?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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